Timing signals

Pick a market and a trigger. Every row is one buy rule with the record of how often it has actually worked there.

Market: PvP Alliance. Address for this market: ahledger.com/signals?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketThe rule is tested against this market’s own history.2TriggerBuy when the day’s price is this far under the trailing 30 day average.3Recover withinA firing counts as a win if the price comes back inside this many days.

▸How this is worked out

One rule, tested honestly: buy when an item's price for the day falls at least 20% under its own trailing 30 day average. A day's price is the average of that day's scans, so a two hour crash that recovers by evening will not fire it. A firing counts as a win when the price comes back within five percent of that average inside 7 days. Every row shows how many times the rule fired and how often it worked, and a rule with too few firings to judge says so instead of showing a rate.

Nothing has fired 5 times yet, so no hit rate here is worth acting on. The rows below are shown with their counts so you can watch them mature.

Firing now · 15

Staff of Horrors median 27s against a 30 day average of 63s 23c only 0 past firings to judge by
Axe of the Enforcer median 8g 99s against a 30 day average of 11g 62s only 0 past firings to judge by
Shadowfang median 14g 80s against a 30 day average of 39g 72s only 0 past firings to judge by
Lesser Moonstone median 6s against a 30 day average of 8s 57c only 0 past firings to judge by
Assassin's Blade median 40g against a 30 day average of 60g 43s only 0 past firings to judge by
Double-barreled Shotgun median 7g against a 30 day average of 16g 98s only 0 past firings to judge by
Diamond Hammer median 3g 70s against a 30 day average of 12g 34s only 0 past firings to judge by
Staff of the Blessed Seer median 5g 22s 50c against a 30 day average of 24g 12s only 0 past firings to judge by
Light Leather median 86c against a 30 day average of 1s 35c only 0 past firings to judge by
Evocator's Blade median 4g 95s against a 30 day average of 35g 16s only 0 past firings to judge by
Linen Cloth median 45c against a 30 day average of 90c only 0 past firings to judge by
Wool Cloth median 99c against a 30 day average of 2s 47c only 0 past firings to judge by
Gold Ore median 11s 91c against a 30 day average of 15s 61c only 0 past firings to judge by
Shining Silver Breastplate median 5g 20s against a 30 day average of 7g 35s 70c only 0 past firings to judge by
Bolt of Linen Cloth median 1s 14c against a 30 day average of 1s 91c only 0 past firings to judge by

Backtest · 0 tested · PvP Alliance

Item	Hit rate	Now
Staff of Horrors	too few	firing
Axe of the Enforcer	too few	firing
Shadowfang	too few	firing
Lesser Moonstone	too few	firing
Assassin's Blade	too few	firing
Double-barreled Shotgun	too few	firing
Diamond Hammer	too few	firing
Staff of the Blessed Seer	too few	firing
Light Leather	too few	firing
Evocator's Blade	too few	firing
Linen Cloth	too few	firing
Wool Cloth	too few	firing
Gold Ore	too few	firing
Shining Silver Breastplate	too few	firing
Bolt of Linen Cloth	too few	firing

Tested over the last 180 days of daily medians. A hit rate on fewer than 5 firings is noise, and is labelled as such rather than shown as a number. Past behaviour is not a promise.