Timing signals
Pick a market and a trigger. Every row is one buy rule with the record of how often it has actually worked there.
Market: PvP Alliance, the market with the newest prices. Pick another below. Address for this market: ahledger.com/signals?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us
▸How this is worked out
One rule, tested honestly: buy when an item's price for the day falls at least 20% under its own trailing 30 day average. A day's price is the average of that day's scans, so a two hour crash that recovers by evening will not fire it. A firing counts as a win when the price comes back within five percent of that average inside 7 days. Every row shows how many times the rule fired and how often it worked, and a rule with too few firings to judge says so instead of showing a rate.
Nothing has fired 5 times yet, so no hit rate here is worth acting on. The rows below are shown with their counts so you can watch them mature.
Firing now · 15
Brawler Gloves median 4g 81s 25c against a 30 day average of 10g 46s only 0 past firings to judge by
Large Red Sack median 1g 26s 67c against a 30 day average of 2g 24s 41c only 0 past firings to judge by
Staff of Horrors median 27s against a 30 day average of 66s 52c only 0 past firings to judge by
Feet of the Lynx median 3g 62s 50c against a 30 day average of 16g 74s only 0 past firings to judge by
Shadowfang median 25g 33s against a 30 day average of 41g 3s only 0 past firings to judge by
Ring of Precision median 9g 12s against a 30 day average of 14g 13s only 0 past firings to judge by
Diamond Hammer median 2g 73s 33c against a 30 day average of 13g 22s only 0 past firings to judge by
Staff of the Blessed Seer median 4g 93s 67c against a 30 day average of 25g 87s only 0 past firings to judge by
Light Leather median 89c against a 30 day average of 1s 40c only 0 past firings to judge by
Evocator's Blade median 5g 47s 67c against a 30 day average of 38g 12s only 0 past firings to judge by
Linen Cloth median 48c against a 30 day average of 94c only 0 past firings to judge by
Wool Cloth median 64c against a 30 day average of 2s 63c only 0 past firings to judge by
Gold Ore median 10s 3c against a 30 day average of 16s 12c only 0 past firings to judge by
Black Velvet Robes median 3g 26s against a 30 day average of 6g 88s 3c only 0 past firings to judge by
Bolt of Linen Cloth median 90c against a 30 day average of 2s only 0 past firings to judge by
Backtest · 0 tested · PvP Alliance
| Item | Fired | Recovered | Hit rate | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brawler Gloves | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Large Red Sack | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Staff of Horrors | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Feet of the Lynx | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Shadowfang | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Ring of Precision | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Diamond Hammer | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Staff of the Blessed Seer | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Light Leather | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Evocator's Blade | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Linen Cloth | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Wool Cloth | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Gold Ore | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Black Velvet Robes | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
| Bolt of Linen Cloth | 0 | 0 | too few | firing |
Tested over the last 180 days of daily medians. A hit rate on fewer than 5 firings is noise, and is labelled as such rather than shown as a number. Past behaviour is not a promise.