How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Alliance US, Grove Scoundrel's Shirt is cheapest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (18:00 to 21:00 Pacific) and dearest from 08:00 to 11:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 Pacific). The gap between them does not cover the 5 percent cut, so this is a buying pattern, not a flip.

Current market: Normal Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

02:00 to 05:00 UTC

18:00 to 21:00 Pacific · index 0.857 · typical 43s 86c

Best hours to sell

08:00 to 11:00 UTC

00:00 to 03:00 Pacific · index 1.086 · typical 34s 83c

Spread after the 5% cut

-25%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Grove Scoundrel's Shirtby hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	38s 57c	36s 67c	1	0.785	3
01:00	17:00	56s 25c	56s 25c	1	1.026	4
02:00	18:00	53s 25c	53s 25c	1	0.833	4
03:00	19:00	33s 33c	33s 33c	1	0.762	3
04:00	20:00	45s	45s	1	0.976	1
05:00	21:00	80s	80s	1	1.102	1
06:00	22:00	45s	45s	1	0.976	1
07:00	23:00	62s 50c	62s 50c	1	1.076	2
08:00	00:00	31s	31s	2	1.180	2
09:00	01:00	28s 50c	28s 50c	1	0.989	2
10:00	02:00	45s	28s 50c	2	1.089	2
11:00	03:00	45s	45s	1	0.963	1
12:00	04:00	38s	38s	1	1.049	4
13:00	05:00	73s	73s	1	1.000	2
14:00	06:00	28s 50c	28s 50c	1	1.024	2
15:00	07:00	50s 50c	50s 50c	2	0.981	6
16:00	08:00	53s 25c	53s 25c	2	1.006	4
17:00	09:00	61s 75c	61s 75c	1	1.045	8
18:00	10:00	58s 60c	58s 60c	1	1.037	5
19:00	11:00	48s	48s	2	1.028	5
20:00	12:00	54s	54s	2	0.987	5
21:00	13:00	64s 50c	64s 50c	2	1.013	4
22:00	14:00	65s	65s	2	1.047	2
23:00	15:00	46s 25c	46s 25c	1	1.027	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.alliance.us/271675 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Alliance US

No Normal Alliance US hourly history in the last 28 days yet. The pattern fills in as players scan through the day. Set up scanning.

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Grove Scoundrel's Shirt?: On Normal Alliance US, Grove Scoundrel's Shirt is cheapest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (18:00 to 21:00 Pacific) and dearest from 08:00 to 11:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 Pacific). The gap between them does not cover the 5 percent cut, so this is a buying pattern, not a flip.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.