How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Alliance US, Pattern: Red Mageweave Pants is cheapest from 04:00 to 07:00 UTC (20:00 to 23:00 Pacific) and dearest from 17:00 to 20:00 UTC (09:00 to 12:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 73% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

04:00 to 07:00 UTC

20:00 to 23:00 Pacific · index 0.883 · typical 62s 78c

Best hours to sell

17:00 to 20:00 UTC

09:00 to 12:00 Pacific · index 1.153 · typical 1g 5s 89c

Spread after the 5% cut

+73%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 0 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Pattern: Red Mageweave Pantsby hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	1g 5s	92s	7	0.961	2
01:00	17:00	87s 50c	75s	11	1.016	2
02:00	18:00	1g 4s 50c	80s	10	1.018	2
03:00	19:00	72s 44c	60s	13	0.994	3
04:00	20:00	63s 33c	58s	14	0.877	3
05:00	21:00	63s 33c	58s	12	0.881	3
06:00	22:00	61s 67c	58s	13	0.892	3
07:00	23:00	72s 50c	72s 50c	13	0.972	2
08:00	00:00	72s 50c	71s	14	0.997	2
09:00	01:00	1g 20s	1g 15s	12	0.995	1
10:00	02:00	80s	70s	14	1.036	2
11:00	03:00	1g 20s	99s	12	1.049	1
12:00	04:00	29s	29s	4	0.810	1
13:00	05:00	72s	64s	9	0.971	2
14:00	06:00	64s	64s	10	0.915	2
15:00	07:00	64s	64s	9	0.964	2
17:00	09:00	99s	99s	12	1.104	1
18:00	10:00	1g 9s 33c	95s	7	1.163	3
19:00	11:00	1g 9s 33c	96s 33c	6	1.191	3
20:00	12:00	62s 50c	42s 50c	13	1.088	2
21:00	13:00	42s 50c	42s	14	0.842	2
22:00	14:00	1g 30s	1g 4s 50c	8	1.083	2
23:00	15:00	1g 12s 50c	87s 50c	10	1.181	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.alliance.us/10302 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.001	1.007	4
01:00	17:00	1.008	1.024	5
02:00	18:00	0.977	1.045	5
03:00	19:00	0.987	1.087	5
04:00	20:00	0.984	1.111	5
05:00	21:00	0.991	1.166	5
06:00	22:00	0.990	1.207	6
07:00	23:00	0.980	1.174	4
08:00	00:00	1.004	1.270	2
09:00	01:00	0.994	1.146	2
10:00	02:00	0.993	1.104	4
11:00	03:00	0.988	1.055	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.951	2
13:00	05:00	0.987	0.956	2
14:00	06:00	1.011	0.918	5
15:00	07:00	0.997	0.894	4
16:00	08:00	1.056	0.791	2
17:00	09:00	1.009	0.854	4
18:00	10:00	0.987	0.873	5
19:00	11:00	1.056	0.728	4
20:00	12:00	0.969	0.908	4
21:00	13:00	0.989	0.934	4
22:00	14:00	1.020	0.893	4
23:00	15:00	1.010	0.903	3

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Pattern: Red Mageweave Pants?: On Normal Alliance US, Pattern: Red Mageweave Pants is cheapest from 04:00 to 07:00 UTC (20:00 to 23:00 Pacific) and dearest from 17:00 to 20:00 UTC (09:00 to 12:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 73% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.