How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Alliance US, Lead Band is cheapest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific) and dearest from 11:00 to 14:00 UTC (03:00 to 06:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 108% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

15:00 to 18:00 UTC

07:00 to 10:00 Pacific · index 0.810 · typical 1g 22s 75c

Best hours to sell

11:00 to 14:00 UTC

03:00 to 06:00 Pacific · index 1.294 · typical 2g 42s 6c

Spread after the 5% cut

+108%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Lead Bandby hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	1g 22s 50c	67s	20	0.992	4
01:00	17:00	1g 26s 33c	73s	21	0.995	3
02:00	18:00	1g 31s 50c	62s 50c	21	1.094	4
03:00	19:00	1g 27s	60s 50c	19	1.049	4
04:00	20:00	1g 26s 33c	79s 67c	22	0.948	3
05:00	21:00	1g 36s 56c	77s 33c	23	1.054	3
06:00	22:00	1g 27s 25c	61s	24	1.086	4
07:00	23:00	1g 13s 33c	63s 33c	14	0.865	3
08:00	00:00	1g 20s	55s	20	1.126	1
09:00	01:00	1g 22s 50c	71s	21	0.971	2
10:00	02:00	2g 3s 33c	1g 80s	15	1.103	3
11:00	03:00	2g 3s 67c	1g 80s	13	1.115	3
12:00	04:00	4g	4g	1	1.624	1
13:00	05:00	1g 22s 50c	50s	17	1.142	1
14:00	06:00	1g 17s	1g 1s 50c	16	0.826	4
15:00	07:00	1g 22s	1g 4s 33c	15	0.826	3
16:00	08:00	1g 32s 50c	1g 30s	13	0.793	2
17:00	09:00	1g 13s 75c	97s 25c	16	0.812	4
18:00	10:00	1g 24s	69s 75c	18	0.929	4
19:00	11:00	1g 33s	1g 1s	19	0.949	3
20:00	12:00	1g 32s 67c	1g 3s 33c	15	0.928	3
21:00	13:00	1g 29s 33c	96s 33c	16	0.901	3
22:00	14:00	1g 16s 13c	82s 25c	17	0.895	4
23:00	15:00	1g 45s	1g 14s 50c	22	0.977	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.alliance.us/11981 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.999	1.031	4
01:00	17:00	0.992	1.055	4
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.119	5
03:00	19:00	0.998	1.158	4
04:00	20:00	0.994	1.182	4
05:00	21:00	1.007	1.211	4
06:00	22:00	1.014	1.255	5
07:00	23:00	0.955	0.998	3
08:00	00:00	0.968	1.133	1
09:00	01:00	0.966	1.140	2
10:00	02:00	0.974	1.077	3
11:00	03:00	0.991	1.040	3
12:00	04:00	1.105	0.795	1
13:00	05:00	0.985	0.943	1
14:00	06:00	1.009	0.896	4
15:00	07:00	1.000	0.848	3
16:00	08:00	1.046	0.809	2
17:00	09:00	0.999	0.833	4
18:00	10:00	0.990	0.847	4
19:00	11:00	1.018	0.869	3
20:00	12:00	0.982	0.936	3
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.947	3
22:00	14:00	1.028	0.908	4
23:00	15:00	0.994	0.970	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Lead Band?: On Normal Alliance US, Lead Band is cheapest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific) and dearest from 11:00 to 14:00 UTC (03:00 to 06:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 108% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.