How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Redridge Machete is cheapest from 11:00 to 14:00 UTC (03:00 to 06:00 Pacific) and dearest from 18:00 to 21:00 UTC (10:00 to 13:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 125% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

11:00 to 14:00 UTC

03:00 to 06:00 Pacific · index 0.899 · typical 15s 78c

Best hours to sell

18:00 to 21:00 UTC

10:00 to 13:00 Pacific · index 1.151 · typical 32s 74c

Spread after the 5% cut

+125%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Redridge Macheteby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	20s 80c	19s 33c	29	0.983	3
01:00	17:00	12s 89c	12s	14	0.998	3
02:00	18:00	12s	11s	23	1.003	2
03:00	19:00	12s 50c	12s 50c	18	1.046	2
04:00	20:00	19s 17c	15s	30	1.003	3
05:00	21:00	17s	13s 75c	37	0.974	4
06:00	22:00	16s 94c	12s	32	1.013	4
07:00	23:00	16s 25c	13s 50c	35	0.984	4
08:00	00:00	16s 33c	14s 33c	36	0.943	3
09:00	01:00	15s 50c	14s	38	0.923	3
10:00	02:00	14s 44c	13s 75c	30	0.994	4
11:00	03:00	14s 33c	14s	35	0.921	3
12:00	04:00	18s	16s	36	0.839	1
13:00	05:00	15s	11s 50c	33	0.938	2
14:00	06:00	14s 33c	10s 67c	34	0.961	3
15:00	07:00	12s 50c	12s	28	0.995	2
16:00	08:00	20s 50c	18s 75c	20	0.896	4
17:00	09:00	26s 58c	17s 25c	15	1.037	4
18:00	10:00	36s 67c	36s	11	1.198	3
19:00	11:00	30s 22c	19s	16	1.081	3
20:00	12:00	31s 33c	22s 33c	20	1.176	3
21:00	13:00	35s 25c	25s 50c	16	1.170	2
22:00	14:00	22s 33c	21s 67c	22	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	19s 13c	19s	30	0.959	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/1219 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Redridge Machete?: On PvP Alliance US, Redridge Machete is cheapest from 11:00 to 14:00 UTC (03:00 to 06:00 Pacific) and dearest from 18:00 to 21:00 UTC (10:00 to 13:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 125% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.