How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Shield of Thorsen is cheapest from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC (22:00 to 01:00 Pacific) and dearest from 11:00 to 14:00 UTC (03:00 to 06:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 81% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

06:00 to 09:00 UTC

22:00 to 01:00 Pacific · index 0.774 · typical 1g 84s 19c

Best hours to sell

11:00 to 14:00 UTC

03:00 to 06:00 Pacific · index 1.268 · typical 3g 18s 33c

Spread after the 5% cut

+81%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Shield of Thorsenby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	2g 66s 67c	2g 28s 33c	12	0.957	3
01:00	17:00	1g 50s	1g 19s 50c	12	0.970	2
02:00	18:00	1g 50s	1g 9s 50c	13	0.986	2
03:00	19:00	1g 43s 33c	1g	14	0.985	1
04:00	20:00	1g 37s 50c	99s 50c	11	0.937	2
05:00	21:00	2g 14s 67c	1g 91s	11	0.833	3
06:00	22:00	2g 61s 75c	2g 36s 50c	10	0.846	2
07:00	23:00	99s 50c	99s	12	0.688	2
08:00	00:00	1g 91s 33c	1g 66s	11	0.788	3
09:00	01:00	2g 37s	1g 99s 50c	16	0.924	2
10:00	02:00	2g 37s	1g 49s 50c	15	0.986	2
11:00	03:00	3g 70s	1g 99s	15	1.314	1
12:00	04:00	2g 85s	1g 49s 50c	12	1.321	2
13:00	05:00	3g	1g 98s	13	1.170	1
14:00	06:00	2g 49s 50c	1g 49s 50c	10	1.243	2
15:00	07:00	2g	1g	8	1.299	1
16:00	08:00	1g 99s	1g 50s	17	0.808	1
17:00	09:00	1g 90s	1g 50s	15	0.793	1
18:00	10:00	1g 75s	1g 75s	9	0.984	2
19:00	11:00	1g 75s	1g 50s	9	1.007	2
20:00	12:00	3g 78s 33c	3g 1s 67c	5	1.135	3
21:00	13:00	3g 51s 67c	2g 68s	10	1.039	3
22:00	14:00	3g 51s 67c	2g 60s	12	1.073	3
23:00	15:00	1g 50s	1g 20s	14	0.913	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/13079 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Shield of Thorsen?: On Normal Horde US, Shield of Thorsen is cheapest from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC (22:00 to 01:00 Pacific) and dearest from 11:00 to 14:00 UTC (03:00 to 06:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 81% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.