How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Alliance US, Moccasins of the White Hare is cheapest from 13:00 to 16:00 UTC (05:00 to 08:00 Pacific) and dearest from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC (22:00 to 01:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 60% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

13:00 to 16:00 UTC

05:00 to 08:00 Pacific · index 0.828 · typical 35s 83c

Best hours to sell

06:00 to 09:00 UTC

22:00 to 01:00 Pacific · index 1.146 · typical 58s 61c

Spread after the 5% cut

+60%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Moccasins of the White Hareby hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	90s 67c	90s 33c	13	0.948	3
01:00	17:00	1g 25s	1g 12s	9	0.971	2
02:00	18:00	90s 67c	81s 67c	15	0.989	3
03:00	19:00	82s	76s 67c	17	0.974	3
04:00	20:00	35s 50c	28s	19	1.036	2
05:00	21:00	35s 50c	28s	19	1.053	2
06:00	22:00	81s 83c	38s 67c	17	1.070	3
07:00	23:00	47s	35s	15	1.168	1
08:00	00:00	47s	35s	15	1.201	1
09:00	01:00	35s	28s	14	0.909	1
10:00	02:00	28s	24s 50c	15	0.950	2
11:00	03:00	1g 78s 50c	1g 75s	7	1.044	2
12:00	04:00	21s	21s	18	0.992	1
13:00	05:00	24s 50c	23s 50c	17	0.894	2
14:00	06:00	41s 50c	40s 50c	11	0.761	2
15:00	07:00	41s 50c	40s 50c	11	0.831	2
16:00	08:00	55s	50s	8	0.925	1
17:00	09:00	1g 27s 33c	1g 25s	8	1.020	3
18:00	10:00	1g 25s 89c	1g 24s 67c	10	1.017	3
19:00	11:00	38s	37s	13	0.964	2
20:00	12:00	1g 63s	1g 61s	8	1.112	2
21:00	13:00	1g 63s	1g 61s	9	1.132	2
22:00	14:00	93s 33c	90s 67c	9	0.991	3
23:00	15:00	50s	50s	7	1.051	1

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.alliance.us/13099 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.993	1.005	4
01:00	17:00	0.995	1.042	4
02:00	18:00	0.980	1.061	5
03:00	19:00	0.982	1.075	4
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.076	4
05:00	21:00	0.989	1.094	4
06:00	22:00	1.004	1.130	5
07:00	23:00	0.958	0.973	3
08:00	00:00	0.983	1.110	1
09:00	01:00	0.967	1.120	2
10:00	02:00	1.020	1.170	4
11:00	03:00	0.979	1.028	3
12:00	04:00	1.056	1.240	2
13:00	05:00	0.991	0.945	1
14:00	06:00	1.016	0.885	4
15:00	07:00	1.011	0.870	3
16:00	08:00	1.067	0.808	2
17:00	09:00	1.009	0.843	4
18:00	10:00	0.996	0.863	4
19:00	11:00	1.030	0.893	3
20:00	12:00	0.980	0.958	3
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.965	3
22:00	14:00	1.012	0.901	4
23:00	15:00	1.009	0.944	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Moccasins of the White Hare?: On Normal Alliance US, Moccasins of the White Hare is cheapest from 13:00 to 16:00 UTC (05:00 to 08:00 Pacific) and dearest from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC (22:00 to 01:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 60% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.