How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Alliance US, Frostreaver Crown is cheapest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific) and dearest from 23:00 to 02:00 UTC (15:00 to 18:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 98% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

12:00 to 15:00 UTC

04:00 to 07:00 Pacific · index 0.788 · typical 4g 16s

Best hours to sell

23:00 to 02:00 UTC

15:00 to 18:00 Pacific · index 1.111 · typical 6g 49s 11c

Spread after the 5% cut

+98%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Frostreaver Crownby hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	6g 90s	5g 73s 67c	5	1.096	3
01:00	17:00	6g 69s 33c	5g 65s	9	1.106	3
02:00	18:00	6g 82s	6g 48s 67c	5	1.127	3
03:00	19:00	5g 96s 92c	5g 46s	11	1.074	4
04:00	20:00	5g 1s	4g 29s 33c	15	1.030	3
05:00	21:00	5g 67c	4g 33s	12	1.039	3
06:00	22:00	5g 77s 13c	5g 20s 50c	11	1.034	4
07:00	23:00	4g 74s 50c	4g 69s 50c	9	0.930	2
08:00	00:00	4g 75s	4g 62s	9	0.958	2
09:00	01:00	6g	5g 11s	10	1.081	1
10:00	02:00	4g 81s 25c	3g 75s 50c	19	0.945	2
11:00	03:00	6g	5g 10s	12	1.115	1
12:00	04:00	3g	2g 45s	17	0.647	1
13:00	05:00	3g 98s	2g 47s 50c	15	0.799	2
14:00	06:00	5g 50s	4g 41s 67c	8	0.918	3
15:00	07:00	5g 28s 67c	4g 95s	7	0.892	3
16:00	08:00	8g 10s	7g	3	1.131	1
17:00	09:00	5g 96s 50c	5g	9	0.947	2
18:00	10:00	5g 41s 67c	4g 79s 67c	9	1.030	3
19:00	11:00	5g 42s 67c	5g 5s 67c	7	1.054	3
20:00	12:00	6g 41s 44c	5g 88s	7	1.151	3
21:00	13:00	4g 50s 84c	3g 10s	12	1.050	2
22:00	14:00	4g 41s 67c	3g 58s 33c	7	0.717	3
23:00	15:00	5g 88s	4g 12s 50c	13	1.130	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.alliance.us/13127 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.001	1.007	4
01:00	17:00	1.008	1.024	5
02:00	18:00	0.977	1.045	5
03:00	19:00	0.987	1.087	5
04:00	20:00	0.984	1.111	5
05:00	21:00	0.991	1.166	5
06:00	22:00	0.990	1.207	6
07:00	23:00	0.980	1.174	4
08:00	00:00	1.004	1.270	2
09:00	01:00	0.994	1.146	2
10:00	02:00	0.993	1.104	4
11:00	03:00	0.988	1.055	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.951	2
13:00	05:00	0.987	0.956	2
14:00	06:00	1.011	0.918	5
15:00	07:00	0.997	0.894	4
16:00	08:00	1.056	0.791	2
17:00	09:00	1.009	0.854	4
18:00	10:00	0.987	0.873	5
19:00	11:00	1.056	0.728	4
20:00	12:00	0.969	0.908	4
21:00	13:00	0.989	0.934	4
22:00	14:00	1.020	0.893	4
23:00	15:00	1.010	0.903	3

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Frostreaver Crown?: On Normal Alliance US, Frostreaver Crown is cheapest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific) and dearest from 23:00 to 02:00 UTC (15:00 to 18:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 98% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.