How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Alliance US, Lil Timmy's Peashooter is cheapest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (01:00 to 04:00 Pacific) and dearest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (18:00 to 21:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 26% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

09:00 to 12:00 UTC

01:00 to 04:00 Pacific · index 0.893 · typical 2g 5s

Best hours to sell

02:00 to 05:00 UTC

18:00 to 21:00 Pacific · index 1.066 · typical 2g 24s 31c

Spread after the 5% cut

+26%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 0 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Lil Timmy's Peashooterby hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	2g 21s 50c	1g 97s 50c	12	1.024	4
01:00	17:00	2g 47s 67c	2g 36s	12	1.049	3
02:00	18:00	2g 22s 75c	2g 4s 50c	12	1.062	4
03:00	19:00	2g 21s 50c	1g 99s 50c	16	1.064	4
04:00	20:00	2g 28s 67c	1g 66s	16	1.073	3
05:00	21:00	2g 18s 56c	1g 67s 67c	21	1.039	3
06:00	22:00	2g 8s	1g 75s 25c	19	1.018	4
07:00	23:00	2g 37s 50c	1g 75s	23	0.991	2
08:00	00:00	1g 45s	1g 40s	29	0.962	1
09:00	01:00	2g 37s 50c	1g 65s	19	1.034	2
10:00	02:00	1g 82s 50c	1g 71s	21	0.864	2
11:00	03:00	1g 95s	1g 70s 67c	13	0.780	3
13:00	05:00	1g 43s	1g 35s	12	0.971	1
14:00	06:00	1g 74s	1g 51s 33c	14	0.924	3
15:00	07:00	1g 56s 50c	1g 48s	14	0.983	2
16:00	08:00	1g 70s	1g 55s	15	1.008	1
17:00	09:00	1g 73s 83c	1g 63s	13	0.958	3
18:00	10:00	2g 33s	2g 22s 50c	10	1.013	4
19:00	11:00	2g 40s 56c	2g 35s	10	1.049	3
20:00	12:00	2g 50s 67c	2g 45s 33c	10	1.019	3
21:00	13:00	2g 46s	2g 35s 33c	9	1.008	3
22:00	14:00	2g 24s 25c	2g 10s	10	1.029	4
23:00	15:00	2g 71s 50c	1g 90s	9	1.079	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.alliance.us/13136 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.999	1.031	4
01:00	17:00	0.992	1.055	4
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.119	5
03:00	19:00	0.998	1.158	4
04:00	20:00	0.994	1.182	4
05:00	21:00	1.007	1.211	4
06:00	22:00	1.014	1.255	5
07:00	23:00	0.955	0.998	3
08:00	00:00	0.968	1.133	1
09:00	01:00	0.966	1.140	2
10:00	02:00	0.974	1.077	3
11:00	03:00	0.991	1.040	3
12:00	04:00	1.105	0.795	1
13:00	05:00	0.985	0.943	1
14:00	06:00	1.009	0.896	4
15:00	07:00	1.000	0.848	3
16:00	08:00	1.046	0.809	2
17:00	09:00	0.999	0.833	4
18:00	10:00	0.990	0.847	4
19:00	11:00	1.018	0.869	3
20:00	12:00	0.982	0.936	3
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.947	3
22:00	14:00	1.028	0.908	4
23:00	15:00	0.994	0.970	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Lil Timmy's Peashooter?: On Normal Alliance US, Lil Timmy's Peashooter is cheapest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (01:00 to 04:00 Pacific) and dearest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (18:00 to 21:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 26% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.