How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance EU through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance EU, Pagan Shoes is cheapest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (03:00 to 06:00 CET) and dearest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (10:00 to 13:00 CET). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 88% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance EU. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/eu

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

02:00 to 05:00 UTC

03:00 to 06:00 CET · index 0.872 · typical 14s 83c

Best hours to sell

09:00 to 12:00 UTC

10:00 to 13:00 CET · index 1.176 · typical 22s 9c

Spread after the 5% cut

+88%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Pagan Shoesby hour · PvP Alliance EU

Hour (UTC)	CET	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	01:00	29s	29s	1	1.037	1
01:00	02:00	17s	12s 50c	14	0.945	2
02:00	03:00	15s	12s 50c	15	0.861	2
03:00	04:00	16s	12s 50c	15	0.920	2
04:00	05:00	13s 50c	8s 50c	14	0.835	2
05:00	06:00	17s	17s	12	1.019	1
06:00	07:00	16s 33c	11s 33c	11	1.000	3
07:00	08:00	20s 25c	16s	7	1.047	4
08:00	09:00	20s 60c	15s 75c	6	1.077	4
09:00	10:00	22s 50c	15s 25c	6	1.218	4
10:00	11:00	22s	16s	7	1.192	4
11:00	12:00	21s 78c	15s 67c	5	1.118	3
12:00	13:00	20s	17s	9	1.124	1
13:00	14:00	21s 33c	20s 33c	7	1.083	3
14:00	15:00	16s	15s	14	0.957	2
15:00	16:00	16s 75c	14s 50c	14	0.994	2
16:00	17:00	18s 33c	16s	12	0.978	3
17:00	18:00	21s 33c	17s 33c	10	1.030	3
18:00	19:00	16s	11s 50c	15	0.960	2
19:00	20:00	21s 22c	17s 33c	7	1.036	3
20:00	21:00	14s 22c	11s	15	0.866	2
21:00	22:00	14s 60c	10s	13	0.894	1
22:00	23:00	16s 67c	13s	15	0.941	3
23:00	00:00	18s 33c	16s 33c	11	0.869	3

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.eu/14159 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance EU

Hour (UTC)	CET	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	01:00	0.996	1.109	1
01:00	02:00	1.008	1.050	4
02:00	03:00	1.044	1.010	3
03:00	04:00	1.032	0.998	2
04:00	05:00	1.037	1.005	3
05:00	06:00	1.065	0.787	2
06:00	07:00	1.026	0.845	5
07:00	08:00	1.040	0.797	5
08:00	09:00	1.022	0.854	5
09:00	10:00	1.015	0.906	5
10:00	11:00	1.044	0.920	5
11:00	12:00	0.998	0.902	4
12:00	13:00	0.985	0.879	2
13:00	14:00	0.991	1.004	3
14:00	15:00	0.989	1.018	3
15:00	16:00	0.984	1.066	3
16:00	17:00	0.968	1.087	4
17:00	18:00	0.959	1.104	3
18:00	19:00	0.959	1.143	2
19:00	20:00	0.995	1.027	3
20:00	21:00	0.950	1.170	2
21:00	22:00	0.944	1.085	1
22:00	23:00	0.949	1.148	3
23:00	00:00	1.000	1.086	3

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Pagan Shoes?: On PvP Alliance EU, Pagan Shoes is cheapest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (03:00 to 06:00 CET) and dearest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (10:00 to 13:00 CET). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 88% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance EU through the night fills the gaps.