How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Prospector's Pads is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 14:00 to 17:00 UTC (06:00 to 09:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 72% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

20:00 to 23:00 UTC

12:00 to 15:00 Pacific · index 0.898 · typical 53s 11c

Best hours to sell

14:00 to 17:00 UTC

06:00 to 09:00 Pacific · index 1.226 · typical 93s 33c

Spread after the 5% cut

+72%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Prospector's Padsby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	51s 89c	42s 33c	39	0.921	3
01:00	17:00	38s 50c	34s	41	0.992	2
02:00	18:00	38s 50c	34s	34	0.994	2
03:00	19:00	38s	29s	46	1.017	1
04:00	20:00	38s 50c	36s	27	0.998	2
05:00	21:00	45s 67c	39s	22	0.995	3
06:00	22:00	49s	46s 50c	14	0.986	2
07:00	23:00	36s 50c	33s	26	0.951	2
08:00	00:00	42s 67c	36s	25	0.972	3
09:00	01:00	44s 50c	37s	36	0.984	2
10:00	02:00	44s 50c	36s 50c	36	1.007	2
11:00	03:00	50s	40s	22	1.033	1
12:00	04:00	42s 50c	40s 50c	19	0.982	2
13:00	05:00	42s	30s	17	0.916	1
14:00	06:00	1g 99s	1g 99s	15	1.740	3
15:00	07:00	39s	25s	28	1.009	1
16:00	08:00	42s	42s	14	0.929	1
17:00	09:00	42s	35s	19	0.935	1
18:00	10:00	53s 67c	51s 33c	17	0.991	3
19:00	11:00	65s 67c	59s 33c	17	0.957	3
20:00	12:00	53s 33c	52s	16	0.882	3
21:00	13:00	53s	51s 67c	28	0.898	3
22:00	14:00	53s	50s 67c	31	0.916	3
23:00	15:00	39s	35s 50c	44	0.995	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/14566 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Prospector's Pads?: On Normal Horde US, Prospector's Pads is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 14:00 to 17:00 UTC (06:00 to 09:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 72% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.