How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Scroll of Agility II is cheapest from 00:00 to 03:00 UTC (16:00 to 19:00 Pacific) and dearest from 13:00 to 16:00 UTC (05:00 to 08:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 163% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

00:00 to 03:00 UTC

16:00 to 19:00 Pacific · index 0.735 · typical 10s 18c

Best hours to sell

13:00 to 16:00 UTC

05:00 to 08:00 Pacific · index 1.214 · typical 24s 77c

Spread after the 5% cut

+163%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Scroll of Agility IIby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	11s 55c	9s 91c	45	0.662	3
01:00	17:00	9s 49c	8s 99c	65	0.760	2
02:00	18:00	9s 49c	7s 99c	77	0.783	2
03:00	19:00	4s 97c	4s 96c	45	0.960	1
04:00	20:00	8s 99c	7s 98c	53	0.828	2
05:00	21:00	27s 5c	25s 57c	50	1.130	3
06:00	22:00	38s 50c	25s 99c	46	1.260	2
07:00	23:00	7s 86c	7s 34c	81	0.832	2
08:00	00:00	22s 23c	18s 89c	62	1.068	3
09:00	01:00	23s 37c	23s 35c	45	1.082	2
10:00	02:00	23s 37c	21s 85c	49	1.066	2
11:00	03:00	31s	29s 50c	14	1.263	2
12:00	04:00	25s 98c	23s 98c	54	1.110	2
13:00	05:00	42s	38s	20	1.141	1
14:00	06:00	22s 99c	21s 33c	33	1.268	3
15:00	07:00	9s 32c	4s 99c	78	1.232	1
16:00	08:00	38s	37s	19	1.100	1
17:00	09:00	37s	35s	23	1.105	1
18:00	10:00	21s 25c	17s 99c	47	1.029	2
19:00	11:00	19s	13s 49c	56	1.026	2
20:00	12:00	16s 17c	9s 99c	31	0.835	3
21:00	13:00	15s 66c	9s 99c	43	0.797	3
22:00	14:00	15s 66c	9s 99c	40	0.805	3
23:00	15:00	13s 24c	9s 49c	64	0.859	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/1477 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Scroll of Agility II?: On Normal Horde US, Scroll of Agility II is cheapest from 00:00 to 03:00 UTC (16:00 to 19:00 Pacific) and dearest from 13:00 to 16:00 UTC (05:00 to 08:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 163% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.