How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Cutthroat's Mantle is cheapest from 21:00 to 00:00 UTC (13:00 to 16:00 Pacific) and dearest from 18:00 to 21:00 UTC (10:00 to 13:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 160% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

21:00 to 00:00 UTC

13:00 to 16:00 Pacific · index 0.734 · typical 1g 39s 58c

Best hours to sell

18:00 to 21:00 UTC

10:00 to 13:00 Pacific · index 1.178 · typical 2g 37s 50c

Spread after the 5% cut

+160%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 0 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Cutthroat's Mantleby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	2g 27s 84c	1g 61s 50c	3	1.163	2
01:00	17:00	2g 28s 50c	1g 80s 50c	3	1.159	2
02:00	18:00	2g 30s 50c	1g 44s	4	1.187	2
03:00	19:00	2g 7s	1g 99s	6	1.107	1
04:00	20:00	2g 18s 50c	2g 18s 50c	4	1.120	2
05:00	21:00	2g 14s 60c	1g 87s 50c	6	1.109	2
06:00	22:00	2g 31s 50c	2g 25s	4	1.190	1
07:00	23:00	1g 90s 75c	1g 12s 50c	9	0.997	2
08:00	00:00	1g 62s	1g 37s 50c	9	0.859	2
09:00	01:00	1g 50s	1g 50s	12	0.816	1
10:00	02:00	1g 50s	1g 50s	12	0.826	1
12:00	04:00	1g 81s 50c	1g 81s 50c	4	0.864	2
13:00	05:00	2g 38s	2g 38s	1	1.079	1
14:00	06:00	1g 87s 50c	1g 81s 50c	5	0.889	2
15:00	07:00	1g 25s	1g 20s	5	0.655	1
16:00	08:00	2g 50s	2g 50s	2	1.123	1
17:00	09:00	2g 50s	2g 50s	2	1.122	1
18:00	10:00	2g 37s 50c	2g 37s 50c	2	1.162	2
19:00	11:00	2g 37s 50c	2g 36s 50c	3	1.176	2
20:00	12:00	2g 37s 50c	2g 37s 50c	2	1.196	2
21:00	13:00	1g 88s 75c	95s	3	0.963	2
22:00	14:00	1g 45s	80s	3	0.768	2
23:00	15:00	85s	85s	6	0.472	1

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/15140 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Cutthroat's Mantle?: On Normal Horde US, Cutthroat's Mantle is cheapest from 21:00 to 00:00 UTC (13:00 to 16:00 Pacific) and dearest from 18:00 to 21:00 UTC (10:00 to 13:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 160% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.