How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Horde EU through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Horde EU. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/horde/eu

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

Not enough hours scanned yet.

Best hours to sell

Not enough hours scanned yet.

Spread after the 5% cut

Needs both windows.

Confidence

No pattern

No pattern yet: only 11 of the 24 hours of the day have been scanned on this market in the last 28 days. It fills in as players scan through the day.

Rageclaw Bracersby hour · PvP Horde EU

Hour (UTC)	CET	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
09:00	10:00	6g 66s	6g 66s	1	2.887	1
10:00	11:00	4g 34s	2g 2s	2	1.768	1
11:00	12:00	2g 2s	2g 2s	2	0.766	1
12:00	13:00	2g 2s	2g 2s	2	0.766	1
13:00	14:00	2g 2s	2g 2s	2	0.766	1
14:00	15:00	2g 2s	2g 2s	2	0.766	1
15:00	16:00	2g 2s	2g 2s	2	0.766	1
16:00	17:00	2g 87s 75c	2g 2s	3	1.091	1
18:00	19:00	2g 2s	2g 2s	2	0.766	1
21:00	22:00	90s	90s	1	0.350	1
22:00	23:00	90s	90s	1	0.308	1

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.horde.eu/15380 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Horde EU

Hour (UTC)	CET	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	01:00	1.000	1.107	4
01:00	02:00	0.959	1.102	4
02:00	03:00	0.958	1.110	3
03:00	04:00	1.025	0.834	3
04:00	05:00	1.121	0.831	4
05:00	06:00	1.032	0.811	2
06:00	07:00	1.041	0.852	3
07:00	08:00	1.024	0.740	4
08:00	09:00	1.004	0.829	5
09:00	10:00	1.033	0.813	5
10:00	11:00	1.022	0.892	5
11:00	12:00	1.006	0.941	5
12:00	13:00	1.007	0.997	5
13:00	14:00	0.998	1.076	5
14:00	15:00	0.974	1.153	5
15:00	16:00	0.963	1.146	5
16:00	17:00	0.995	1.216	5
17:00	18:00	0.944	1.079	4
18:00	19:00	0.968	1.160	4
19:00	20:00	0.926	1.140	3
20:00	21:00	1.004	1.042	4
21:00	22:00	0.993	0.956	3
22:00	23:00	1.010	1.110	3
23:00	00:00	0.992	1.067	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Horde EU through the night fills the gaps.