How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Bright Sphere is cheapest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific) and dearest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 111% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

16:00 to 19:00 UTC

08:00 to 11:00 Pacific · index 0.910 · typical 25s 83c

Best hours to sell

10:00 to 13:00 UTC

02:00 to 05:00 Pacific · index 1.079 · typical 42s 58c

Spread after the 5% cut

+111%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Bright Sphereby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	40s	34s 67c	14	1.129	3
01:00	17:00	22s 50c	22s	16	0.978	2
02:00	18:00	22s 50c	22s	16	0.984	2
03:00	19:00	20s	20s	18	0.992	1
04:00	20:00	48s 33c	48s	10	1.002	3
05:00	21:00	28s 13c	27s 33c	14	0.957	3
06:00	22:00	32s	30s	16	0.940	2
07:00	23:00	22s	21s 50c	10	1.000	2
08:00	00:00	27s 33c	24s 33c	12	0.973	3
09:00	01:00	29s	25s	10	0.984	2
10:00	02:00	28s 75c	25s	9	1.014	2
11:00	03:00	68s 50c	65s	8	1.137	2
12:00	04:00	30s 50c	27s	12	1.085	2
13:00	05:00	30s	19s	18	0.975	1
14:00	06:00	27s	19s 50c	11	1.037	2
15:00	07:00	24s	20s	5	1.102	1
16:00	08:00	27s 50c	19s	12	0.911	1
17:00	09:00	25s	19s	12	0.835	1
18:00	10:00	25s	19s 50c	7	0.984	2
19:00	11:00	23s 34c	20s	9	0.944	2
20:00	12:00	40s	40s	5	1.003	3
21:00	13:00	40s	40s	9	1.029	3
22:00	14:00	40s	39s 67c	10	1.052	3
23:00	15:00	22s 50c	22s 50c	15	0.952	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/15927 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Bright Sphere?: On Normal Horde US, Bright Sphere is cheapest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific) and dearest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 111% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.