How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning RP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On RP Alliance US, Fish Oil is cheapest from 23:00 to 02:00 UTC (15:00 to 18:00 Pacific) and dearest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 176% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: RP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/rp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

23:00 to 02:00 UTC

15:00 to 18:00 Pacific · index 0.665 · typical 1s 27c

Best hours to sell

16:00 to 19:00 UTC

08:00 to 11:00 Pacific · index 1.243 · typical 3s 32c

Spread after the 5% cut

+176%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 0 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Fish Oilby hour · RP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	50c	45c	54	0.489	1
01:00	17:00	49c	45c	49	0.479	1
03:00	19:00	49c	45c	51	0.535	1
04:00	20:00	3s 75c	3s 70c	16	1.135	2
05:00	21:00	1s 99c	1s 25c	34	0.941	2
13:00	05:00	2s 5c	2s	22	1.257	1
14:00	06:00	3s 90c	3s 90c	19	1.108	1
15:00	07:00	3s 90c	3s 90c	20	1.108	1
16:00	08:00	2s 98c	2s 95c	18	1.239	2
17:00	09:00	3s 2c	2s 50c	15	1.372	2
18:00	10:00	3s 95c	3s 75c	10	1.119	2
19:00	11:00	1s	75c	38	0.978	1
20:00	12:00	3s 95c	3s 75c	14	1.119	2
21:00	13:00	4s	4s	3	1.096	1
23:00	15:00	2s 83c	2s 53c	28	1.026	3

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.rp.alliance.us/17058 on the API.

The whole market by hour · RP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.977	1.136	1
01:00	17:00	0.972	1.194	1
02:00	18:00	1.100	0.723	1
03:00	19:00	0.966	1.253	1
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.135	2
05:00	21:00	0.963	1.297	2
11:00	03:00	1.126	0.935	1
13:00	05:00	1.021	0.850	1
14:00	06:00	0.993	0.974	1
15:00	07:00	0.982	0.918	1
16:00	08:00	0.968	0.864	2
17:00	09:00	1.012	0.816	2
18:00	10:00	0.990	0.920	3
19:00	11:00	0.980	0.847	1
20:00	12:00	0.990	0.966	2
21:00	13:00	0.988	1.044	1
23:00	15:00	0.986	1.128	3

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Fish Oil?: On RP Alliance US, Fish Oil is cheapest from 23:00 to 02:00 UTC (15:00 to 18:00 Pacific) and dearest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 176% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning RP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.