How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Recipe: Mithril Head Trout is cheapest from 01:00 to 04:00 UTC (17:00 to 20:00 Pacific) and dearest from 14:00 to 17:00 UTC (06:00 to 09:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 89% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

01:00 to 04:00 UTC

17:00 to 20:00 Pacific · index 0.827 · typical 35s 4c

Best hours to sell

14:00 to 17:00 UTC

06:00 to 09:00 Pacific · index 1.212 · typical 65s 56c

Spread after the 5% cut

+89%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Recipe: Mithril Head Troutby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	58s 80c	43s	13	1.082	3
01:00	17:00	36s	30s	9	0.795	1
02:00	18:00	34s 50c	34s 50c	11	0.842	2
03:00	19:00	34s 63c	34s 50c	13	0.845	2
04:00	20:00	43s	37s 67c	13	0.853	3
05:00	21:00	43s	38s 25c	12	0.915	4
06:00	22:00	43s 75c	38s 50c	13	0.961	4
07:00	23:00	43s 75c	38s 50c	13	0.973	4
08:00	00:00	40s 33c	38s	13	0.885	3
09:00	01:00	40s 33c	37s 67c	13	0.893	3
10:00	02:00	41s 33c	39s 67c	13	0.954	3
11:00	03:00	39s 33c	37s 67c	10	0.899	3
12:00	04:00	72s	72s	5	0.963	2
13:00	05:00	59s	59s	4	0.929	3
14:00	06:00	63s 50c	62s	7	1.186	4
15:00	07:00	69s 67c	69s 67c	12	1.261	3
16:00	08:00	63s 50c	62s 75c	12	1.190	4
17:00	09:00	63s	53s 25c	11	1.186	4
18:00	10:00	60s	56s	16	1.031	3
19:00	11:00	60s	55s 67c	17	1.050	3
20:00	12:00	58s 67c	54s 33c	22	1.039	3
21:00	13:00	68s	62s	21	1.121	2
22:00	14:00	59s 67c	41s 67c	16	1.095	3
23:00	15:00	54s 50c	43s	19	1.052	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/17062 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Recipe: Mithril Head Trout?: On PvP Alliance US, Recipe: Mithril Head Trout is cheapest from 01:00 to 04:00 UTC (17:00 to 20:00 Pacific) and dearest from 14:00 to 17:00 UTC (06:00 to 09:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 89% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.