How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Greater Healing Potion is cheapest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (18:00 to 21:00 Pacific) and dearest from 23:00 to 02:00 UTC (15:00 to 18:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 64% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

02:00 to 05:00 UTC

18:00 to 21:00 Pacific · index 0.904 · typical 8s 3c

Best hours to sell

23:00 to 02:00 UTC

15:00 to 18:00 Pacific · index 1.288 · typical 12s 77c

Spread after the 5% cut

+64%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 2 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Greater Healing Potionby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	11s 35c	10s 93c	61	0.937	3
01:00	17:00	15s 13c	6s 68c	77	1.988	2
02:00	18:00	6s 91c	6s 68c	101	0.905	2
03:00	19:00	6s 96c	6s 17c	89	0.912	2
04:00	20:00	10s 21c	9s 37c	57	0.896	3
05:00	21:00	10s 66c	10s 1c	82	0.911	4
06:00	22:00	14s 3c	9s 53c	80	1.226	4
07:00	23:00	12s 95c	12s 51c	71	0.913	5
08:00	00:00	14s 75c	14s 36c	47	0.973	4
09:00	01:00	14s 42c	13s 99c	50	0.961	4
10:00	02:00	12s 71c	12s 34c	53	0.927	5
11:00	03:00	10s 81c	10s 14c	62	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	20s 23c	19s 98c	18	1.012	2
13:00	05:00	15s 81c	15s 64c	33	0.972	3
14:00	06:00	13s 74c	13s 10c	41	0.928	4
15:00	07:00	13s 49c	12s 97c	42	0.938	3
16:00	08:00	13s 80c	13s 12c	34	0.949	4
17:00	09:00	13s 60c	9s 12c	34	0.943	4
18:00	10:00	15s 71c	15s 33c	31	0.947	3
19:00	11:00	15s 83c	13s 66c	30	1.001	3
20:00	12:00	12s 49c	11s 37c	30	0.968	3
21:00	13:00	13s 82c	13s 50c	30	0.936	2
22:00	14:00	13s 82c	13s 8c	43	0.952	3
23:00	15:00	11s 84c	10s 37c	56	0.939	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/1710 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Greater Healing Potion?: On PvP Alliance US, Greater Healing Potion is cheapest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (18:00 to 21:00 Pacific) and dearest from 23:00 to 02:00 UTC (15:00 to 18:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 64% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.