How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Recipe: Heavy Crocolisk Stew is cheapest from 17:00 to 20:00 UTC (09:00 to 12:00 Pacific) and dearest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 118% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

17:00 to 20:00 UTC

09:00 to 12:00 Pacific · index 0.788 · typical 69s 45c

Best hours to sell

12:00 to 15:00 UTC

04:00 to 07:00 Pacific · index 1.203 · typical 1g 33s 78c

Spread after the 5% cut

+118%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Recipe: Heavy Crocolisk Stewby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	1g 1s 33c	99s 67c	17	0.932	3
01:00	17:00	57s	57s	25	0.873	2
02:00	18:00	57s	54s 50c	31	0.901	2
03:00	19:00	55s	50s	26	1.019	1
04:00	20:00	57s	55s	23	0.936	2
05:00	21:00	98s	84s 33c	15	0.999	3
06:00	22:00	1g 19s 50c	1g 17s	12	1.012	2
07:00	23:00	56s 50c	55s 50c	20	0.965	2
08:00	00:00	97s	95s 33c	14	1.036	3
09:00	01:00	1g 10s 67c	1g 9s	11	1.285	3
10:00	02:00	1g 14s 75c	1g 13s 50c	14	1.113	2
11:00	03:00	1g 37s 50c	1g 37s 50c	4	0.981	2
12:00	04:00	1g 17s	1g 17s	11	1.173	2
13:00	05:00	1g 75s	1g 75s	2	1.420	1
14:00	06:00	1g 9s 33c	1g 8s	10	1.016	3
15:00	07:00	56s 33c	55s	23	0.966	1
16:00	08:00	1g 69s	60s	8	1.444	1
17:00	09:00	60s	60s	19	0.525	1
18:00	10:00	57s 50c	57s 50c	21	0.750	2
19:00	11:00	90s 84c	57s 50c	17	1.089	2
20:00	12:00	1g 1s 67c	1g 1s 67c	11	0.901	3
21:00	13:00	1g 1s 67c	1g 1s 33c	18	0.907	3
22:00	14:00	1g 1s 67c	99s 67c	19	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	57s	57s	16	0.831	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/20075 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Recipe: Heavy Crocolisk Stew?: On Normal Horde US, Recipe: Heavy Crocolisk Stew is cheapest from 17:00 to 20:00 UTC (09:00 to 12:00 Pacific) and dearest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 118% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.