How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Alliance US, Black Metal Greatsword is cheapest from 07:00 to 10:00 UTC (23:00 to 02:00 Pacific) and dearest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 162% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

07:00 to 10:00 UTC

23:00 to 02:00 Pacific · index 0.910 · typical 70s 50c

Best hours to sell

20:00 to 23:00 UTC

12:00 to 15:00 Pacific · index 1.076 · typical 1g 58s 28c

Spread after the 5% cut

+162%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 0 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Black Metal Greatswordby hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	1g 28s	1g 26s 33c	9	1.000	3
01:00	17:00	1g 60s	1g 57s	10	1.003	2
02:00	18:00	1g 28s	1g 24s 33c	6	1.018	3
03:00	19:00	1g 26s 33c	1g 3s	9	1.051	3
04:00	20:00	67s	67s	11	1.003	2
05:00	21:00	67s	57s	15	1.008	2
06:00	22:00	1g 2s 17c	89s 33c	15	0.998	3
07:00	23:00	70s	50s	15	1.024	1
08:00	00:00	69s	50s	15	1.017	1
09:00	01:00	72s 50c	72s	5	0.690	2
10:00	02:00	70s	68s	10	1.038	1
11:00	03:00	1g 71s	1g 69s 50c	6	1.116	2
13:00	05:00	68s 50c	64s	8	1.024	1
14:00	06:00	1g 57s 33c	1g 39s	7	1.136	3
15:00	07:00	74s	71s 50c	11	0.930	2
16:00	08:00	79s 50c	75s	11	0.952	1
17:00	09:00	1g 39s 83c	1g 37s 67c	6	1.051	3
18:00	10:00	79s 67c	77s 67c	7	0.779	3
19:00	11:00	69s 50c	66s 50c	10	0.988	2
20:00	12:00	1g 69s	81s	6	1.096	2
21:00	13:00	1g 69s	1g 66s	7	1.097	2
22:00	14:00	1g 36s 83c	1g 33s 67c	6	1.036	3
23:00	15:00	70s	70s	11	0.946	1

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.alliance.us/2014 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.999	1.031	4
01:00	17:00	0.992	1.055	4
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.119	5
03:00	19:00	0.998	1.158	4
04:00	20:00	0.994	1.182	4
05:00	21:00	1.007	1.211	4
06:00	22:00	1.014	1.255	5
07:00	23:00	0.955	0.998	3
08:00	00:00	0.968	1.133	1
09:00	01:00	0.966	1.140	2
10:00	02:00	0.974	1.077	3
11:00	03:00	0.991	1.040	3
12:00	04:00	1.105	0.795	1
13:00	05:00	0.985	0.943	1
14:00	06:00	1.009	0.896	4
15:00	07:00	1.000	0.848	3
16:00	08:00	1.046	0.809	2
17:00	09:00	0.999	0.833	4
18:00	10:00	0.990	0.847	4
19:00	11:00	1.018	0.869	3
20:00	12:00	0.982	0.936	3
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.947	3
22:00	14:00	1.028	0.908	4
23:00	15:00	0.994	0.970	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Black Metal Greatsword?: On Normal Alliance US, Black Metal Greatsword is cheapest from 07:00 to 10:00 UTC (23:00 to 02:00 Pacific) and dearest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 162% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.