How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Scroll of Liminal Passage is cheapest from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC (22:00 to 01:00 Pacific) and dearest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (01:00 to 04:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 125% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

06:00 to 09:00 UTC

22:00 to 01:00 Pacific · index 0.735 · typical 43s 10c

Best hours to sell

09:00 to 12:00 UTC

01:00 to 04:00 Pacific · index 1.403 · typical 88s 33c

Spread after the 5% cut

+125%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Scroll of Liminal Passageby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	46s 81c	25s 49c	57	0.808	2
01:00	17:00	46s 72c	45s 49c	56	0.822	2
02:00	18:00	45s 49c	43s 50c	62	0.800	2
03:00	19:00	15s 97c	12s 50c	77	0.695	1
04:00	20:00	45s 24c	41s 25c	59	0.848	2
05:00	21:00	44s 99c	31s 50c	56	0.851	2
06:00	22:00	58s 99c	47s 49c	20	0.757	2
07:00	23:00	32s 99c	29s 50c	40	0.745	2
08:00	00:00	37s 32c	34s 99c	30	0.705	3
09:00	01:00	1g 7s 50c	1g 7s 50c	12	1.980	2
10:00	02:00	57s 50c	57s 50c	13	1.051	2
11:00	03:00	1g	1g	2	1.178	1
12:00	04:00	72s	72s	29	0.990	2
13:00	05:00	1g	1g	5	1.198	1
14:00	06:00	72s	71s 50c	26	1.047	2
15:00	07:00	43s 99c	43s 99c	43	0.944	1
16:00	08:00	1g	1g	11	1.216	1
17:00	09:00	1g	90s	13	1.224	1
18:00	10:00	72s	56s	38	1.157	2
19:00	11:00	72s	55s 99c	39	1.196	2
20:00	12:00	67s	59s 97c	24	1.173	2
21:00	13:00	59s 99c	46s 50c	48	0.956	2
22:00	14:00	48s 49c	33s 50c	53	0.859	2
23:00	15:00	46s 98c	32s 99c	54	0.801	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/213548 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Scroll of Liminal Passage?: On Normal Horde US, Scroll of Liminal Passage is cheapest from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC (22:00 to 01:00 Pacific) and dearest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (01:00 to 04:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 125% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.