How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Pattern: Invoker's Mantle is cheapest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (18:00 to 21:00 Pacific) and dearest from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC (22:00 to 01:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 187% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

02:00 to 05:00 UTC

18:00 to 21:00 Pacific · index 0.491 · typical 12s 92c

Best hours to sell

06:00 to 09:00 UTC

22:00 to 01:00 Pacific · index 1.477 · typical 33s 28c

Spread after the 5% cut

+187%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 2 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Pattern: Invoker's Mantleby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	30s 67c	30s	25	0.536	3
01:00	17:00	13s	4s 50c	32	1.051	2
02:00	18:00	5s 50c	5s	40	0.455	2
03:00	19:00	5s 25c	5s	38	0.444	2
04:00	20:00	28s	23s	34	0.575	3
05:00	21:00	23s	18s 75c	34	0.660	4
06:00	22:00	35s 33c	26s 50c	30	1.541	4
07:00	23:00	28s 50c	25s 25c	32	1.333	4
08:00	00:00	36s	32s 33c	24	1.558	3
09:00	01:00	35s 33c	26s 67c	26	1.454	3
10:00	02:00	23s 58c	13s	23	0.977	3
11:00	03:00	33s 33c	19s 67c	27	1.474	3
12:00	04:00	1g 73s 50c	1g 66s	9	1.363	2
13:00	05:00	1g 24s	1g 17s 33c	21	1.354	3
14:00	06:00	90s 75c	89s	20	1.193	4
15:00	07:00	1g 11s	1g 7s 33c	19	1.350	3
16:00	08:00	90s 50c	86s 75c	19	1.210	4
17:00	09:00	89s 75c	85s 25c	20	1.224	4
18:00	10:00	1g 10s 67c	1g 10s 67c	15	1.096	3
19:00	11:00	36s 33c	36s 33c	16	0.622	3
20:00	12:00	33s	30s 67c	23	0.635	3
21:00	13:00	42s	42s	10	0.483	2
22:00	14:00	36s 33c	31s	16	0.695	3
23:00	15:00	29s 50c	24s 50c	27	0.717	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/215370 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Pattern: Invoker's Mantle?: On PvP Alliance US, Pattern: Invoker's Mantle is cheapest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (18:00 to 21:00 Pacific) and dearest from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC (22:00 to 01:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 187% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.