How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Pattern: Defender's Leather Pants is cheapest from 21:00 to 00:00 UTC (13:00 to 16:00 Pacific) and dearest from 07:00 to 10:00 UTC (23:00 to 02:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 76% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

21:00 to 00:00 UTC

13:00 to 16:00 Pacific · index 0.834 · typical 84s 14c

Best hours to sell

07:00 to 10:00 UTC

23:00 to 02:00 Pacific · index 1.169 · typical 1g 25s 69c

Spread after the 5% cut

+76%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Pattern: Defender's Leather Pantsby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	84s	61s 33c	13	0.939	3
01:00	17:00	76s	49s	19	0.904	2
02:00	18:00	80s	52s	13	0.954	2
03:00	19:00	82s 50c	61s 50c	10	0.994	2
04:00	20:00	88s	82s 67c	9	1.007	3
05:00	21:00	1g 16s	1g 13s 75c	9	1.128	4
06:00	22:00	1g 16s	1g 8s 50c	9	1.134	4
07:00	23:00	1g 15s 75c	1g 7s	10	1.133	4
08:00	00:00	1g 31s	1g 1s 33c	11	1.183	3
09:00	01:00	1g 30s 33c	99s 67c	11	1.189	3
10:00	02:00	1g 10s	96s 25c	9	1.118	4
11:00	03:00	1g 21s	98s 33c	11	1.140	3
12:00	04:00	1g	1g	3	1.057	1
13:00	05:00	96s 50c	89s 50c	7	1.067	2
14:00	06:00	1g 2s 56c	92s 67c	11	1.015	3
15:00	07:00	1g 3s 50c	83s	15	1.002	2
16:00	08:00	95s 50c	89s	8	0.958	3
17:00	09:00	95s 78c	89s	7	0.959	3
18:00	10:00	99s 50c	92s 50c	10	0.892	2
19:00	11:00	96s 75c	75s	12	0.860	2
20:00	12:00	80s 50c	51s	16	0.863	2
21:00	13:00	93s	74s 50c	9	0.918	2
22:00	14:00	80s 67c	69s 33c	8	0.768	3
23:00	15:00	78s 75c	59s 50c	10	0.818	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/252794 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Pattern: Defender's Leather Pants?: On PvP Alliance US, Pattern: Defender's Leather Pants is cheapest from 21:00 to 00:00 UTC (13:00 to 16:00 Pacific) and dearest from 07:00 to 10:00 UTC (23:00 to 02:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 76% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.