How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Pattern: Trapper's Leather Helm is cheapest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific) and dearest from 21:00 to 00:00 UTC (13:00 to 16:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 247% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

10:00 to 13:00 UTC

02:00 to 05:00 Pacific · index 0.668 · typical 48s 58c

Best hours to sell

21:00 to 00:00 UTC

13:00 to 16:00 Pacific · index 1.509 · typical 1g 30s 24c

Spread after the 5% cut

+247%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Pattern: Trapper's Leather Helmby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	39s 50c	29s 50c	20	0.899	2
01:00	17:00	91s 78c	82s 67c	12	1.089	3
02:00	18:00	39s 50c	21s 50c	22	0.941	2
03:00	19:00	39s 50c	19s 50c	23	1.025	2
04:00	20:00	43s	36s 33c	15	1.301	3
05:00	21:00	82s 25c	64s 75c	15	1.375	4
06:00	22:00	68s 42c	42s 25c	16	0.987	4
07:00	23:00	55s 75c	41s	17	0.892	4
08:00	00:00	68s	50s 33c	17	0.845	3
09:00	01:00	68s	48s 67c	19	0.864	3
10:00	02:00	54s 75c	41s 25c	15	0.833	4
11:00	03:00	66s	40s 67c	16	0.751	3
12:00	04:00	25s	25s	6	0.420	1
13:00	05:00	42s 50c	24s 50c	7	1.120	2
14:00	06:00	61s 33c	49s 33c	12	1.096	3
15:00	07:00	61s 50c	61s 50c	16	0.899	2
16:00	08:00	49s 33c	49s 33c	12	0.755	3
17:00	09:00	49s 33c	47s 67c	9	0.764	3
18:00	10:00	64s 50c	64s 50c	11	0.728	2
19:00	11:00	64s 50c	59s 50c	13	0.761	2
20:00	12:00	61s 50c	39s 50c	21	1.126	2
21:00	13:00	93s	60s	22	1.262	1
22:00	14:00	1g 80s	1g 80s	13	1.855	2
23:00	15:00	1g 17s 72c	59s 33c	15	1.411	3

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/252815 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Pattern: Trapper's Leather Helm?: On PvP Alliance US, Pattern: Trapper's Leather Helm is cheapest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific) and dearest from 21:00 to 00:00 UTC (13:00 to 16:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 247% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.