How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Green Hills of Stranglethorn - Page 11 is cheapest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific) and dearest from 21:00 to 00:00 UTC (13:00 to 16:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 165% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

10:00 to 13:00 UTC

02:00 to 05:00 Pacific · index 0.851 · typical 11s 89c

Best hours to sell

21:00 to 00:00 UTC

13:00 to 16:00 Pacific · index 1.300 · typical 31s 3c

Spread after the 5% cut

+165%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Green Hills of Stranglethorn - Page 11by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	15s 83c	14s 83c	31	0.930	3
01:00	17:00	11s 24c	9s 74c	45	1.084	2
02:00	18:00	11s 11c	9s 24c	37	1.125	2
03:00	19:00	8s 17c	6s 50c	63	1.041	1
04:00	20:00	9s 74c	9s 24c	56	0.967	2
05:00	21:00	14s 49c	10s 48c	39	0.900	3
06:00	22:00	18s 49c	14s 45c	20	0.960	2
07:00	23:00	8s 47c	7s 44c	62	0.864	2
08:00	00:00	10s 78c	9s 62c	55	0.761	3
09:00	01:00	13s 15c	12s 66c	40	1.036	3
10:00	02:00	10s 23c	10s	44	0.776	2
11:00	03:00	13s 99c	13s 99c	27	0.898	1
12:00	04:00	11s 44c	9s 44c	53	0.881	2
13:00	05:00	13s 99c	9s 99c	31	0.938	1
14:00	06:00	40s 96c	40s 96c	29	1.037	3
15:00	07:00	8s 89c	8s 89c	55	0.916	1
16:00	08:00	13s 99c	13s 99c	15	0.958	1
17:00	09:00	13s 99c	13s 99c	15	0.967	1
18:00	10:00	11s 44c	11s 40c	27	0.987	2
19:00	11:00	11s 44c	11s 39c	21	1.027	2
20:00	12:00	11s 44c	11s 43c	18	1.046	2
21:00	13:00	40s 92c	40s 16c	26	1.371	3
22:00	14:00	40s 92c	40s 16c	24	1.458	3
23:00	15:00	11s 24c	9s 74c	47	1.070	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/2735 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Green Hills of Stranglethorn - Page 11?: On Normal Horde US, Green Hills of Stranglethorn - Page 11 is cheapest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific) and dearest from 21:00 to 00:00 UTC (13:00 to 16:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 165% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.