How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Green Hills of Stranglethorn - Page 26 is cheapest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific) and dearest from 18:00 to 21:00 UTC (10:00 to 13:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 178% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

15:00 to 18:00 UTC

07:00 to 10:00 Pacific · index 0.585 · typical 9s 23c

Best hours to sell

18:00 to 21:00 UTC

10:00 to 13:00 Pacific · index 1.689 · typical 26s 33c

Spread after the 5% cut

+178%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Green Hills of Stranglethorn - Page 26by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	13s 25c	7s 70c	95	0.969	2
01:00	17:00	14s 50c	7s 75c	91	1.049	2
02:00	18:00	8s 24c	6s 25c	105	0.693	2
03:00	19:00	9s 95c	5s 95c	142	0.585	1
04:00	20:00	8s 23c	6s 24c	95	0.700	2
05:00	21:00	19s 47c	17s 96c	64	1.067	3
06:00	22:00	24s 25c	24s 10c	27	1.295	2
07:00	23:00	6s 24c	6s 4c	85	0.490	2
08:00	00:00	15s 31c	11s 73c	65	0.853	3
09:00	01:00	16s 96c	15s	57	1.084	3
10:00	02:00	15s 44c	12s	67	0.909	2
11:00	03:00	25s	19s	23	1.371	1
12:00	04:00	15s 60c	8s 10c	36	0.917	2
13:00	05:00	19s	11s	37	1.121	1
14:00	06:00	12s 10c	8s 1c	36	0.741	2
15:00	07:00	5s 20c	5s 2c	40	0.320	1
16:00	08:00	11s 50c	11s	32	0.723	1
17:00	09:00	11s	10s 99c	29	0.711	1
18:00	10:00	26s 50c	20s 50c	43	1.662	2
19:00	11:00	26s	18s 49c	46	1.681	2
20:00	12:00	26s 50c	24s 50c	21	1.724	2
21:00	13:00	19s 50c	13s 25c	66	1.297	2
22:00	14:00	15s 88c	8s 22c	94	1.096	2
23:00	15:00	13s 25c	8s 20c	102	0.942	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/2750 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Green Hills of Stranglethorn - Page 26?: On Normal Horde US, Green Hills of Stranglethorn - Page 26 is cheapest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific) and dearest from 18:00 to 21:00 UTC (10:00 to 13:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 178% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.