How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Item 286535 is cheapest from 21:00 to 00:00 UTC (13:00 to 16:00 Pacific) and dearest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (01:00 to 04:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 31% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

21:00 to 00:00 UTC

13:00 to 16:00 Pacific · index 0.889 · typical 78s 15c

Best hours to sell

09:00 to 12:00 UTC

01:00 to 04:00 Pacific · index 1.166 · typical 1g 2s 22c

Spread after the 5% cut

+31%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Item 286535by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	83s 92c	73s	10	0.933	4
01:00	17:00	79s 50c	77s 50c	12	0.900	2
02:00	18:00	1g 10s	1g 3s 33c	10	1.221	3
03:00	19:00	99s 67c	99s	6	1.146	1
04:00	20:00	93s	92s 33c	12	1.023	3
05:00	21:00	82s 67c	69s 67c	17	0.947	3
06:00	22:00	76s 50c	71s 50c	14	0.883	2
07:00	23:00	85s	74s	18	0.967	2
08:00	00:00	80s	71s 67c	16	0.918	3
09:00	01:00	1g 20s	1g 15s	9	1.385	3
10:00	02:00	90s	60s	5	1.064	1
11:00	03:00	96s 67c	86s 33c	5	1.049	3
12:00	04:00	89s 67c	83s	7	1.011	3
13:00	05:00	95s	94s 50c	4	1.044	2
14:00	06:00	88s 25c	73s	11	0.974	4
15:00	07:00	87s 17c	74s 50c	9	0.930	2
16:00	08:00	90s	85s	9	1.071	1
17:00	09:00	89s	85s	14	1.060	1
18:00	10:00	79s	75s 67c	13	0.874	3
19:00	11:00	88s 25c	83s 25c	13	0.982	4
20:00	12:00	85s	80s 25c	11	0.951	4
21:00	13:00	79s 78c	73s 33c	16	0.904	3
22:00	14:00	78s 67c	74s 33c	16	0.904	3
23:00	15:00	76s	74s 50c	17	0.858	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/286535 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.978	1.041	4
01:00	17:00	0.997	1.031	3
02:00	18:00	0.994	1.069	4
03:00	19:00	1.004	1.124	2
04:00	20:00	0.978	1.175	4
05:00	21:00	0.984	1.237	4
06:00	22:00	0.983	1.087	3
07:00	23:00	0.970	1.392	3
08:00	00:00	0.964	1.363	3
09:00	01:00	1.437	0.751	2
10:00	02:00	1.025	1.058	1
11:00	03:00	1.020	0.985	3
12:00	04:00	0.973	0.993	3
13:00	05:00	1.014	0.892	2
14:00	06:00	0.973	0.879	4
15:00	07:00	0.949	0.839	2
16:00	08:00	0.977	0.840	1
17:00	09:00	0.958	0.858	1
18:00	10:00	0.942	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.973	0.797	4
20:00	12:00	0.993	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.971	0.940	3
22:00	14:00	0.976	0.975	3
23:00	15:00	0.967	1.032	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Item 286535?: On Normal Horde US, Item 286535 is cheapest from 21:00 to 00:00 UTC (13:00 to 16:00 Pacific) and dearest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (01:00 to 04:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 31% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.