How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Horde CN through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Horde CN, Item 286993 is cheapest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 China time) and dearest from 08:00 to 11:00 UTC (16:00 to 19:00 China time). The gap between them does not cover the 5 percent cut, so this is a buying pattern, not a flip.

Current market: PvP Horde CN. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/horde/cn

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

16:00 to 19:00 UTC

00:00 to 03:00 China time · index 0.952 · typical 2g 85s

Best hours to sell

08:00 to 11:00 UTC

16:00 to 19:00 China time · index 1.025 · typical 2g 7s 33c

Spread after the 5% cut

-25%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 0 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Item 286993by hour · PvP Horde CN

Hour (UTC)	China time	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
01:00	09:00	2g	1g 98s	6	1.034	1
02:00	10:00	2g	1g 88s	8	1.037	1
04:00	12:00	1g 88s	1g 66s	10	1.016	1
07:00	15:00	2g 17s	2g 16s	10	0.960	1
08:00	16:00	2g 17s	2g 17s	10	1.030	1
09:00	17:00	2g 17s	2g 17s	12	1.030	1
10:00	18:00	1g 88s	1g 88s	8	1.016	1
11:00	19:00	2g 2s 50c	1g 94s	10	1.023	2
12:00	20:00	1g 88s	1g 88s	8	1.016	1
14:00	22:00	1g 94s	1g 82s 50c	13	0.994	2
15:00	23:00	2g 60s 33c	1g 81s 33c	15	1.015	3
16:00	00:00	1g 65s	1g 49s	19	0.912	1
17:00	01:00	3g 50s	3g 19s	15	0.985	1
18:00	02:00	3g 40s	3g 18s	16	0.957	1
19:00	03:00	3g 19s	3g 18s	10	0.974	1

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.horde.cn/286993 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Horde CN

Hour (UTC)	China time	Price index	Listings index	Days
01:00	09:00	1.002	0.698	1
02:00	10:00	1.020	0.683	1
04:00	12:00	1.075	0.708	1
07:00	15:00	1.032	0.923	1
08:00	16:00	1.042	0.934	1
09:00	17:00	1.025	0.978	1
10:00	18:00	0.992	1.050	1
11:00	19:00	0.990	1.064	2
12:00	20:00	0.987	1.118	1
14:00	22:00	0.945	1.195	2
15:00	23:00	0.981	1.207	3
16:00	00:00	0.940	1.384	1
17:00	01:00	0.997	1.080	1
18:00	02:00	0.987	1.058	1
19:00	03:00	0.986	0.920	1

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Item 286993?: On PvP Horde CN, Item 286993 is cheapest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 China time) and dearest from 08:00 to 11:00 UTC (16:00 to 19:00 China time). The gap between them does not cover the 5 percent cut, so this is a buying pattern, not a flip.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Horde CN through the night fills the gaps.