How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Alliance US, Nightbane Staff is cheapest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific) and dearest from 01:00 to 04:00 UTC (17:00 to 20:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 52% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

15:00 to 18:00 UTC

07:00 to 10:00 Pacific · index 0.784 · typical 70s 3c

Best hours to sell

01:00 to 04:00 UTC

17:00 to 20:00 Pacific · index 1.162 · typical 1g 3s 33c

Spread after the 5% cut

+52%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 0 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Nightbane Staffby hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	95s 33c	94s 33c	6	1.069	3
01:00	17:00	1g 13s	1g 12s 33c	4	1.263	3
02:00	18:00	1g	96s	5	1.128	4
03:00	19:00	97s	85s 50c	5	1.096	4
04:00	20:00	94s 67c	94s	4	1.055	3
05:00	21:00	89s 22c	77s 67c	5	0.992	3
06:00	22:00	83s 25c	77s	7	0.917	4
07:00	23:00	98s 50c	93s 50c	5	1.073	2
08:00	00:00	98s	98s	7	1.026	1
09:00	01:00	98s 50c	94s 50c	6	1.068	2
10:00	02:00	98s 50c	94s 50c	8	1.085	2
11:00	03:00	98s 50c	75s	8	1.091	2
13:00	05:00	90s	70s	11	0.961	1
14:00	06:00	81s 33c	69s 67c	8	0.882	3
15:00	07:00	73s 33c	72s 33c	6	0.816	3
16:00	08:00	67s 25c	65s	4	0.759	2
17:00	09:00	69s 50c	56s	5	0.776	4
18:00	10:00	81s 33c	74s	5	0.909	4
19:00	11:00	82s 33c	76s 33c	6	0.919	3
20:00	12:00	87s	70s	11	0.963	1
21:00	13:00	93s	87s	5	1.075	2
22:00	14:00	86s 63c	77s	5	0.967	4
23:00	15:00	99s 50c	98s 50c	5	1.110	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.alliance.us/3227 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.999	1.031	4
01:00	17:00	0.992	1.055	4
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.119	5
03:00	19:00	0.998	1.158	4
04:00	20:00	0.994	1.182	4
05:00	21:00	1.007	1.211	4
06:00	22:00	1.014	1.255	5
07:00	23:00	0.955	0.998	3
08:00	00:00	0.968	1.133	1
09:00	01:00	0.966	1.140	2
10:00	02:00	0.974	1.077	3
11:00	03:00	0.991	1.040	3
12:00	04:00	1.105	0.795	1
13:00	05:00	0.985	0.943	1
14:00	06:00	1.009	0.896	4
15:00	07:00	1.000	0.848	3
16:00	08:00	1.046	0.809	2
17:00	09:00	0.999	0.833	4
18:00	10:00	0.990	0.847	4
19:00	11:00	1.018	0.869	3
20:00	12:00	0.982	0.936	3
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.947	3
22:00	14:00	1.028	0.908	4
23:00	15:00	0.994	0.970	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Nightbane Staff?: On Normal Alliance US, Nightbane Staff is cheapest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific) and dearest from 01:00 to 04:00 UTC (17:00 to 20:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 52% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.