How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Farmer's Shovel is cheapest from 13:00 to 16:00 UTC (05:00 to 08:00 Pacific) and dearest from 01:00 to 04:00 UTC (17:00 to 20:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 328% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

13:00 to 16:00 UTC

05:00 to 08:00 Pacific · index 0.765 · typical 5s 92c

Best hours to sell

01:00 to 04:00 UTC

17:00 to 20:00 Pacific · index 1.331 · typical 22s 88c

Spread after the 5% cut

+328%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Farmer's Shovelby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	4s 75c	3s 75c	51	0.933	4
01:00	17:00	36s	15s 67c	52	1.742	3
02:00	18:00	13s 63c	11s 50c	38	1.127	4
03:00	19:00	19s	16s 50c	64	1.123	2
04:00	20:00	12s	8s	56	1.070	4
05:00	21:00	9s 92c	6s 25c	64	1.097	4
06:00	22:00	11s 67c	6s 67c	51	1.112	3
07:00	23:00	9s	5s	62	0.936	3
08:00	00:00	4s 67c	3s 33c	60	1.139	3
09:00	01:00	5s 33c	4s 33c	44	1.327	3
10:00	02:00	4s	4s	58	0.829	1
11:00	03:00	9s	5s 33c	44	1.009	3
12:00	04:00	7s 33c	5s	40	0.847	3
13:00	05:00	6s 50c	5s 50c	33	0.632	2
14:00	06:00	5s 25c	4s 75c	24	0.846	4
15:00	07:00	6s	5s	30	0.818	2
16:00	08:00	4s	3s	22	0.870	1
17:00	09:00	4s	4s	18	0.876	1
18:00	10:00	5s 33c	4s 67c	31	0.929	3
19:00	11:00	5s 25c	4s 50c	25	0.962	4
20:00	12:00	5s 25c	4s 50c	27	0.983	4
21:00	13:00	4s	3s 33c	45	0.909	3
22:00	14:00	4s	3s 67c	50	0.938	3
23:00	15:00	3s 50c	3s	73	0.948	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/3334 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.978	1.041	4
01:00	17:00	0.997	1.031	3
02:00	18:00	0.994	1.069	4
03:00	19:00	1.004	1.124	2
04:00	20:00	0.978	1.175	4
05:00	21:00	0.984	1.237	4
06:00	22:00	0.983	1.087	3
07:00	23:00	0.970	1.392	3
08:00	00:00	0.964	1.363	3
09:00	01:00	1.437	0.751	2
10:00	02:00	1.025	1.058	1
11:00	03:00	1.020	0.985	3
12:00	04:00	0.973	0.993	3
13:00	05:00	1.014	0.892	2
14:00	06:00	0.973	0.879	4
15:00	07:00	0.949	0.839	2
16:00	08:00	0.977	0.840	1
17:00	09:00	0.958	0.858	1
18:00	10:00	0.942	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.973	0.797	4
20:00	12:00	0.993	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.971	0.940	3
22:00	14:00	0.976	0.975	3
23:00	15:00	0.967	1.032	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Farmer's Shovel?: On Normal Horde US, Farmer's Shovel is cheapest from 13:00 to 16:00 UTC (05:00 to 08:00 Pacific) and dearest from 01:00 to 04:00 UTC (17:00 to 20:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 328% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.