How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Soothing Turtle Bisque is cheapest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific) and dearest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 185% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

16:00 to 19:00 UTC

08:00 to 11:00 Pacific · index 0.727 · typical 9s 17c

Best hours to sell

10:00 to 13:00 UTC

02:00 to 05:00 Pacific · index 1.416 · typical 25s 83c

Spread after the 5% cut

+185%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Soothing Turtle Bisqueby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	18s 86c	18s 9c	36	0.971	3
01:00	17:00	5s 79c	5s 63c	51	0.942	2
02:00	18:00	5s 78c	5s 63c	51	0.964	2
03:00	19:00	4s 6c	4s 6c	50	0.968	1
04:00	20:00	5s 63c	5s 60c	47	0.969	2
05:00	21:00	13s 75c	13s 42c	42	0.971	3
06:00	22:00	18s 60c	17s 50c	39	1.006	2
07:00	23:00	5s 63c	4s 3c	45	1.022	2
08:00	00:00	13s 59c	6s 2c	38	1.036	3
09:00	01:00	17s 3c	6s 53c	32	1.138	2
10:00	02:00	30s	10s	33	1.402	1
11:00	03:00	30s	10s	30	1.588	1
12:00	04:00	17s 50c	7s 50c	40	1.260	2
13:00	05:00	12s 50c	10s	26	0.764	1
14:00	06:00	23s 33c	22s	20	0.877	3
15:00	07:00	5s	4s 99c	44	0.973	1
16:00	08:00	10s	10s	17	0.646	1
17:00	09:00	10s	9s 50c	16	0.662	1
18:00	10:00	7s 50c	6s 30c	42	0.874	2
19:00	11:00	23s 16c	22s 20c	28	0.999	3
20:00	12:00	22s 83c	22s 50c	22	1.011	3
21:00	13:00	22s 83c	22s 19c	32	1.054	3
22:00	14:00	22s 53c	18s 85c	34	1.014	3
23:00	15:00	6s 30c	5s 78c	50	0.890	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/3729 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.987	1.035	4
01:00	17:00	1.006	1.014	3
02:00	18:00	1.005	1.038	4
03:00	19:00	1.018	1.086	2
04:00	20:00	0.987	1.145	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.210	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.085	3
07:00	23:00	0.973	1.329	3
08:00	00:00	0.972	1.312	3
09:00	01:00	1.218	1.083	3
10:00	02:00	1.033	1.044	1
11:00	03:00	1.047	0.980	3
12:00	04:00	0.985	0.988	3
13:00	05:00	1.024	0.880	2
14:00	06:00	0.986	0.880	4
15:00	07:00	0.949	0.839	2
16:00	08:00	0.985	0.832	1
17:00	09:00	0.973	0.855	1
18:00	10:00	0.946	0.900	3
19:00	11:00	0.979	0.794	4
20:00	12:00	1.001	0.743	4
21:00	13:00	0.984	0.933	3
22:00	14:00	0.984	0.970	3
23:00	15:00	0.980	1.023	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Soothing Turtle Bisque?: On Normal Horde US, Soothing Turtle Bisque is cheapest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific) and dearest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 185% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.