How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Recipe: Soothing Turtle Bisque is cheapest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific) and dearest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 196% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

16:00 to 19:00 UTC

08:00 to 11:00 Pacific · index 0.673 · typical 26s 33c

Best hours to sell

10:00 to 13:00 UTC

02:00 to 05:00 Pacific · index 1.471 · typical 78s 83c

Spread after the 5% cut

+196%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Recipe: Soothing Turtle Bisqueby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	45s 33c	44s 33c	58	1.078	3
01:00	17:00	12s 50c	11s 50c	87	0.843	2
02:00	18:00	15s	11s 50c	76	1.227	2
03:00	19:00	7s	6s	97	0.974	1
04:00	20:00	12s	10s	105	0.946	2
05:00	21:00	41s	39s 33c	77	1.130	3
06:00	22:00	57s 50c	55s 50c	68	1.246	2
07:00	23:00	11s	9s 50c	93	0.920	2
08:00	00:00	39s 67c	27s 67c	79	1.134	3
09:00	01:00	37s 67c	27s 67c	36	1.016	3
10:00	02:00	98s	68s	42	1.599	1
11:00	03:00	98s	30s	43	1.659	1
12:00	04:00	40s 50c	19s	67	1.153	2
13:00	05:00	68s	30s	36	1.297	1
14:00	06:00	31s 33c	17s 67c	36	0.926	3
15:00	07:00	10s 33c	8s	66	1.014	1
16:00	08:00	30s	30s	33	0.612	1
17:00	09:00	30s	30s	34	0.631	1
18:00	10:00	19s	16s	52	0.776	2
19:00	11:00	17s 67c	15s 33c	37	0.646	3
20:00	12:00	17s 67c	15s 33c	29	0.664	3
21:00	13:00	16s 25c	12s 50c	68	0.863	2
22:00	14:00	15s	12s 50c	81	0.806	2
23:00	15:00	15s	12s 50c	84	0.838	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/3737 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.987	1.035	4
01:00	17:00	1.006	1.014	3
02:00	18:00	1.005	1.038	4
03:00	19:00	1.018	1.086	2
04:00	20:00	0.987	1.145	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.210	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.085	3
07:00	23:00	0.973	1.329	3
08:00	00:00	0.972	1.312	3
09:00	01:00	1.218	1.083	3
10:00	02:00	1.033	1.044	1
11:00	03:00	1.047	0.980	3
12:00	04:00	0.985	0.988	3
13:00	05:00	1.024	0.880	2
14:00	06:00	0.986	0.880	4
15:00	07:00	0.949	0.839	2
16:00	08:00	0.985	0.832	1
17:00	09:00	0.973	0.855	1
18:00	10:00	0.946	0.900	3
19:00	11:00	0.979	0.794	4
20:00	12:00	1.001	0.743	4
21:00	13:00	0.984	0.933	3
22:00	14:00	0.984	0.970	3
23:00	15:00	0.980	1.023	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Recipe: Soothing Turtle Bisque?: On Normal Horde US, Recipe: Soothing Turtle Bisque is cheapest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific) and dearest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 196% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.