How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Plans: Jade Serpentblade is cheapest from 11:00 to 14:00 UTC (03:00 to 06:00 Pacific) and dearest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 2% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

11:00 to 14:00 UTC

03:00 to 06:00 Pacific · index 0.831 · typical 25s 61c

Best hours to sell

15:00 to 18:00 UTC

07:00 to 10:00 Pacific · index 1.229 · typical 24s 83c

Spread after the 5% cut

+2%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Plans: Jade Serpentbladeby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	45s	43s 33c	21	1.182	3
01:00	17:00	17s 50c	15s	30	1.014	2
02:00	18:00	15s	15s	31	0.885	2
03:00	19:00	15s 13c	15s	32	0.907	2
04:00	20:00	26s 67c	26s 67c	27	0.893	3
05:00	21:00	22s 75c	22s 75c	25	0.824	4
06:00	22:00	22s 75c	22s 50c	23	0.837	4
07:00	23:00	22s 75c	18s 75c	23	0.855	4
08:00	00:00	25s 67c	18s 67c	18	0.822	3
09:00	01:00	25s 67c	18s	15	0.838	3
10:00	02:00	22s 75c	17s 75c	16	0.900	4
11:00	03:00	24s 33c	18s	11	0.864	3
12:00	04:00	30s	30s	9	0.742	1
13:00	05:00	22s 50c	21s 50c	10	0.887	2
14:00	06:00	25s 33c	24s 67c	7	1.137	3
15:00	07:00	23s 50c	23s	8	1.342	2
16:00	08:00	25s 67c	16s 67c	9	1.172	3
17:00	09:00	25s 33c	16s 67c	11	1.173	3
18:00	10:00	30s 50c	17s 50c	15	1.281	2
19:00	11:00	25s	17s 50c	18	1.019	2
20:00	12:00	45s	44s 67c	17	1.134	3
21:00	13:00	60s	60s	13	1.208	2
22:00	14:00	45s	43s 67c	9	1.028	3
23:00	15:00	37s 50c	36s 25c	18	1.053	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/3866 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Plans: Jade Serpentblade?: On PvP Alliance US, Plans: Jade Serpentblade is cheapest from 11:00 to 14:00 UTC (03:00 to 06:00 Pacific) and dearest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 2% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.