How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Pattern: Reinforced Woolen Shoulders is cheapest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific) and dearest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 121% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

22:00 to 01:00 UTC

14:00 to 17:00 Pacific · index 0.827 · typical 5s 86c

Best hours to sell

16:00 to 19:00 UTC

08:00 to 11:00 Pacific · index 1.274 · typical 11s 71c

Spread after the 5% cut

+121%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 2 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Pattern: Reinforced Woolen Shouldersby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	5s 67c	4s 67c	45	0.776	3
01:00	17:00	6s 67c	3s 33c	27	1.704	3
02:00	18:00	3s 50c	3s	47	0.815	2
03:00	19:00	19s	18s 67c	29	0.942	3
04:00	20:00	15s 75c	15s	46	0.881	4
05:00	21:00	13s 20c	12s 80c	48	0.858	5
06:00	22:00	6s	3s	55	1.116	4
07:00	23:00	12s 50c	12s 20c	48	0.841	5
08:00	00:00	14s 75c	14s 75c	46	0.877	4
09:00	01:00	14s 75c	11s 50c	40	0.916	4
10:00	02:00	12s 40c	9s	32	0.925	5
11:00	03:00	3s 67c	3s 67c	34	0.804	3
12:00	04:00	19s 50c	12s	36	1.041	2
13:00	05:00	13s 67c	9s	30	0.987	3
14:00	06:00	10s 75c	7s 50c	24	0.887	4
15:00	07:00	13s 33c	8s 67c	18	0.961	3
16:00	08:00	14s 88c	7s 50c	20	1.622	4
17:00	09:00	9s 25c	8s 75c	21	1.095	4
18:00	10:00	11s	8s 67c	27	1.106	3
19:00	11:00	10s 33c	6s	30	1.084	3
20:00	12:00	8s 67c	5s 67c	31	1.035	3
21:00	13:00	9s	6s 50c	39	1.022	2
22:00	14:00	6s 67c	5s 67c	48	0.891	3
23:00	15:00	5s 25c	4s 75c	42	0.813	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/4347 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Pattern: Reinforced Woolen Shoulders?: On PvP Alliance US, Pattern: Reinforced Woolen Shoulders is cheapest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific) and dearest from 16:00 to 19:00 UTC (08:00 to 11:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 121% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.