How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance EU through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance EU, War Knife is cheapest from 04:00 to 07:00 UTC (05:00 to 08:00 CET) and dearest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (23:00 to 02:00 CET). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 96% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance EU. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/eu

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

04:00 to 07:00 UTC

05:00 to 08:00 CET · index 0.862 · typical 17s 78c

Best hours to sell

22:00 to 01:00 UTC

23:00 to 02:00 CET · index 1.175 · typical 23s 20c

Spread after the 5% cut

+96%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

War Knifeby hour · PvP Alliance EU

Hour (UTC)	CET	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	01:00	20s	12s	58	1.066	1
01:00	02:00	21s	10s 33c	95	0.980	3
02:00	03:00	22s 50c	10s	99	0.962	2
03:00	04:00	22s 25c	10s	104	0.952	2
04:00	05:00	15s	10s	126	0.800	2
05:00	06:00	19s 75c	10s 50c	59	0.894	2
06:00	07:00	18s 60c	13s 20c	60	0.891	5
07:00	08:00	17s 60c	13s	54	0.843	5
08:00	09:00	17s	11s 20c	46	0.864	5
09:00	10:00	19s 30c	14s 60c	48	0.934	5
10:00	11:00	20s 20c	12s	33	0.974	5
11:00	12:00	22s 4c	11s 50c	49	1.000	4
12:00	13:00	27s 50c	13s 50c	55	1.223	2
13:00	14:00	22s 60c	10s	69	1.101	3
14:00	15:00	23s	12s	61	1.030	3
15:00	16:00	21s 50c	11s	68	0.966	3
16:00	17:00	22s 75c	11s	73	1.083	4
17:00	18:00	20s 83c	11s	74	0.949	3
18:00	19:00	20s 50c	10s	110	0.986	2
19:00	20:00	25s 78c	12s	63	1.201	3
20:00	21:00	18s	10s	121	0.890	2
21:00	22:00	20s 20c	9s	117	0.950	1
22:00	23:00	25s 50c	9s 33c	111	1.219	3
23:00	00:00	24s 11c	10s 67c	87	1.240	3

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.eu/4571 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance EU

Hour (UTC)	CET	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	01:00	0.985	1.123	1
01:00	02:00	1.008	1.052	4
02:00	03:00	1.049	1.010	3
03:00	04:00	1.032	0.998	2
04:00	05:00	1.039	1.030	3
05:00	06:00	1.060	0.801	2
06:00	07:00	1.024	0.876	5
07:00	08:00	1.037	0.820	5
08:00	09:00	1.021	0.886	5
09:00	10:00	1.003	0.942	5
10:00	11:00	1.069	0.754	5
11:00	12:00	0.989	0.900	4
12:00	13:00	0.983	0.872	2
13:00	14:00	0.988	0.988	3
14:00	15:00	0.986	1.010	3
15:00	16:00	0.978	1.064	3
16:00	17:00	0.969	1.090	4
17:00	18:00	0.959	1.115	3
18:00	19:00	0.960	1.155	2
19:00	20:00	0.990	1.040	3
20:00	21:00	0.954	1.160	2
21:00	22:00	0.964	1.073	1
22:00	23:00	0.953	1.150	3
23:00	00:00	0.999	1.092	3

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell War Knife?: On PvP Alliance EU, War Knife is cheapest from 04:00 to 07:00 UTC (05:00 to 08:00 CET) and dearest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (23:00 to 02:00 CET). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 96% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance EU through the night fills the gaps.