How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Humbert's Helm is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 127% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

20:00 to 23:00 UTC

12:00 to 15:00 Pacific · index 0.834 · typical 4g 18s 63c

Best hours to sell

12:00 to 15:00 UTC

04:00 to 07:00 Pacific · index 1.268 · typical 9g 1s 11c

Spread after the 5% cut

+127%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Humbert's Helmby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	3g 89s 67c	3g 79s 67c	6	0.843	3
01:00	17:00	3g 19s 75c	2g 37s	9	0.944	2
02:00	18:00	3g 57s 50c	3g 22s 50c	6	1.080	2
03:00	19:00	3g 8s 33c	2g 25s	3	1.059	1
04:00	20:00	3g 22s 50c	3g 5s	9	0.995	2
05:00	21:00	4g 7s 50c	3g	10	0.959	2
06:00	22:00	4g 7s 50c	3g 51s	11	0.973	2
07:00	23:00	3g 26s	3g 17s	13	1.027	2
08:00	00:00	3g 64s 83c	3g 3s	13	1.002	3
09:00	01:00	4g 8s 50c	3g 49s 50c	10	1.092	2
10:00	02:00	4g 45s	3g 75s	10	1.014	1
11:00	03:00	4g	3g 75s	10	0.923	1
12:00	04:00	4g	3g 50s	14	1.065	2
13:00	05:00	4g	3g	9	0.940	1
14:00	06:00	19g 3s	19g	6	1.800	3
15:00	07:00	3g 6s 67c	2g 78s	9	1.039	1
16:00	08:00	4g	3g 50s	5	0.954	1
17:00	09:00	4g	3g 90s	7	0.963	1
18:00	10:00	3g 32s 50c	3g 5s	9	0.943	2
19:00	11:00	3g 15s	3g 15s	13	0.892	2
20:00	12:00	4g 45s	3g 91s 67c	7	0.846	3
21:00	13:00	4g 17s 89c	3g 65s	9	0.825	3
22:00	14:00	3g 93s	3g 75s	7	0.831	3
23:00	15:00	3g 39s 50c	3g 15s	7	0.992	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/4724 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.987	1.035	4
01:00	17:00	1.006	1.014	3
02:00	18:00	1.005	1.038	4
03:00	19:00	1.018	1.086	2
04:00	20:00	0.987	1.145	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.210	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.085	3
07:00	23:00	0.973	1.329	3
08:00	00:00	0.972	1.312	3
09:00	01:00	1.218	1.083	3
10:00	02:00	1.033	1.044	1
11:00	03:00	1.047	0.980	3
12:00	04:00	0.985	0.988	3
13:00	05:00	1.024	0.880	2
14:00	06:00	0.986	0.880	4
15:00	07:00	0.949	0.839	2
16:00	08:00	0.985	0.832	1
17:00	09:00	0.973	0.855	1
18:00	10:00	0.946	0.900	3
19:00	11:00	0.979	0.794	4
20:00	12:00	1.001	0.743	4
21:00	13:00	0.984	0.933	3
22:00	14:00	0.984	0.970	3
23:00	15:00	0.980	1.023	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Humbert's Helm?: On Normal Horde US, Humbert's Helm is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 127% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.