How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Azora's Will is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 39% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

20:00 to 23:00 UTC

12:00 to 15:00 Pacific · index 0.904 · typical 53s 70c

Best hours to sell

12:00 to 15:00 UTC

04:00 to 07:00 Pacific · index 1.121 · typical 70s 83c

Spread after the 5% cut

+39%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Azora's Willby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	1g 25c	97s 25c	24	0.972	4
01:00	17:00	42s	40s 50c	31	0.961	2
02:00	18:00	1g 10s 33c	1g 6s	21	1.022	3
03:00	19:00	39s	37s	18	0.987	1
04:00	20:00	1g 10s 33c	1g 9s	9	1.031	3
05:00	21:00	49s 80c	47s 33c	17	0.994	3
06:00	22:00	54s 75c	52s 50c	16	0.999	2
07:00	23:00	42s 50c	39s	17	1.007	2
08:00	00:00	48s 33c	45s 67c	20	1.008	3
09:00	01:00	50s	47s	19	1.023	2
10:00	02:00	50s	43s 50c	20	1.036	2
11:00	03:00	1g 29s	76s	20	1.154	2
12:00	04:00	52s 50c	43s	32	1.070	2
13:00	05:00	60s	50s	21	1.117	1
14:00	06:00	1g	60s	22	1.174	3
15:00	07:00	42s	39s	22	1.009	1
16:00	08:00	49s	40s	18	0.923	1
17:00	09:00	48s	40s	19	0.911	1
18:00	10:00	44s	38s	17	0.953	2
19:00	11:00	62s 67c	58s 67c	15	0.970	3
20:00	12:00	54s 33c	51s 67c	13	0.903	3
21:00	13:00	53s 44c	44s 67c	27	0.900	3
22:00	14:00	53s 33c	49s 33c	29	0.910	3
23:00	15:00	43s	36s 50c	34	0.965	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/4999 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Azora's Will?: On Normal Horde US, Azora's Will is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC (04:00 to 07:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 39% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.