How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Flash Powder is cheapest from 03:00 to 06:00 UTC (19:00 to 22:00 Pacific) and dearest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 110% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

03:00 to 06:00 UTC

19:00 to 22:00 Pacific · index 0.932 · typical 1s 69c

Best hours to sell

10:00 to 13:00 UTC

02:00 to 05:00 Pacific · index 1.124 · typical 3s 53c

Spread after the 5% cut

+110%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Flash Powderby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	1s 88c	1s 79c	9	0.927	3
01:00	17:00	1s 42c	1s 19c	14	1.061	2
02:00	18:00	1s 34c	1s 16c	14	1.024	2
03:00	19:00	1s 20c	1s 15c	14	0.970	2
04:00	20:00	1s 79c	1s 61c	12	0.901	3
05:00	21:00	2s 9c	2s 3c	12	0.926	4
06:00	22:00	2s 50c	1s 38c	11	1.023	4
07:00	23:00	2s 47c	1s 35c	10	1.015	4
08:00	00:00	3s 1c	2s 86c	6	1.050	3
09:00	01:00	2s 91c	2s 89c	8	0.982	3
10:00	02:00	2s 68c	2s 63c	10	1.198	4
11:00	03:00	2s 91c	2s 82c	10	1.008	3
12:00	04:00	4s 99c	3s 99c	7	1.164	1
13:00	05:00	2s 48c	2s 45c	9	0.866	2
14:00	06:00	2s 84c	2s 45c	11	1.028	3
15:00	07:00	1s 65c	1s 60c	15	0.905	2
16:00	08:00	2s 78c	2s 21c	12	1.010	3
17:00	09:00	2s 73c	2s 21c	12	0.977	3
18:00	10:00	3s 15c	3s 4c	9	0.999	3
19:00	11:00	3s 10c	3s 4c	8	0.981	3
20:00	12:00	2s 3c	1s 96c	7	0.977	3
21:00	13:00	2s 62c	2s 56c	6	0.988	2
22:00	14:00	3s 4c	3s 3c	7	0.987	3
23:00	15:00	2s 52c	2s 21c	8	1.034	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/5140 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Flash Powder?: On PvP Alliance US, Flash Powder is cheapest from 03:00 to 06:00 UTC (19:00 to 22:00 Pacific) and dearest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 110% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.