How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Lucky Charm is cheapest from 08:00 to 11:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 Pacific) and dearest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 54% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

08:00 to 11:00 UTC

00:00 to 03:00 Pacific · index 0.876 · typical 59s 77c

Best hours to sell

22:00 to 01:00 UTC

14:00 to 17:00 Pacific · index 1.208 · typical 85s 26c

Spread after the 5% cut

+54%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Lucky Charmby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	77s 32c	76s	11	1.058	4
01:00	17:00	74s 50c	74s 50c	15	1.090	2
02:00	18:00	83s	64s 67c	13	1.069	3
03:00	19:00	98s 33c	45s	25	1.140	1
04:00	20:00	83s	74s 66c	13	1.047	3
05:00	21:00	68s	58s	18	1.036	3
06:00	22:00	52s	50s 44c	12	1.000	2
07:00	23:00	62s	47s	18	0.917	2
08:00	00:00	59s 66c	54s 66c	14	0.939	3
09:00	01:00	62s 44c	52s	22	0.871	2
10:00	02:00	57s 22c	51s 50c	20	0.820	2
11:00	03:00	77s	77s	9	1.118	2
12:00	04:00	50s	47s	13	0.880	2
13:00	05:00	54s	54s	11	1.037	1
14:00	06:00	66s 33c	64s 66c	9	0.992	3
15:00	07:00	45s	39s 99c	7	0.625	1
16:00	08:00	54s	54s	13	1.045	1
17:00	09:00	54s	54s	12	1.048	1
18:00	10:00	50s	48s	10	0.821	2
19:00	11:00	68s 75c	67s 75c	6	0.939	4
20:00	12:00	71s 33c	69s 96c	7	0.993	3
21:00	13:00	54s 95c	54s 50c	14	0.949	2
22:00	14:00	1g 3s 96c	68s	12	1.467	3
23:00	15:00	74s 50c	74s 50c	18	1.101	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/5373 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Lucky Charm?: On Normal Horde US, Lucky Charm is cheapest from 08:00 to 11:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 Pacific) and dearest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 54% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.