How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Recipe: Elixir of Ogre's Strength is cheapest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific) and dearest from 08:00 to 11:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 Pacific). The gap between them does not cover the 5 percent cut, so this is a buying pattern, not a flip.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

22:00 to 01:00 UTC

14:00 to 17:00 Pacific · index 0.934 · typical 18s 28c

Best hours to sell

08:00 to 11:00 UTC

00:00 to 03:00 Pacific · index 1.109 · typical 12s 44c

Spread after the 5% cut

-33%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 2 days of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Recipe: Elixir of Ogre's Strengthby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	18s	18s	35	0.910	3
01:00	17:00	7s 33c	7s 33c	30	1.007	3
02:00	18:00	6s 50c	6s 50c	42	0.986	2
03:00	19:00	6s 50c	5s 50c	43	0.985	2
04:00	20:00	17s 83c	10s	42	0.999	3
05:00	21:00	14s 25c	8s 25c	49	1.022	4
06:00	22:00	13s 25c	7s 50c	46	1.003	4
07:00	23:00	13s	7s 50c	44	1.010	4
08:00	00:00	14s 33c	8s 33c	49	1.059	3
09:00	01:00	11s	7s 67c	49	0.911	3
10:00	02:00	12s	7s 25c	28	1.358	4
11:00	03:00	9s 13c	7s 67c	39	0.881	3
12:00	04:00	56s	55s	21	0.994	2
13:00	05:00	38s 67c	21s 67c	26	0.970	3
14:00	06:00	30s 75c	18s 25c	26	0.979	4
15:00	07:00	37s 67c	21s	25	1.114	3
16:00	08:00	30s 75c	18s 25c	25	0.995	4
17:00	09:00	30s 75c	30s 25c	22	1.026	4
18:00	10:00	39s	39s	22	1.077	3
19:00	11:00	27s 89c	10s 67c	23	0.949	3
20:00	12:00	21s	18s 67c	27	0.954	3
21:00	13:00	27s	24s	24	0.916	2
22:00	14:00	20s 33c	19s	33	0.955	3
23:00	15:00	16s 50c	15s 75c	39	0.939	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/6211 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Recipe: Elixir of Ogre's Strength?: On PvP Alliance US, Recipe: Elixir of Ogre's Strength is cheapest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific) and dearest from 08:00 to 11:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 Pacific). The gap between them does not cover the 5 percent cut, so this is a buying pattern, not a flip.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.