How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Silver-thread Boots is cheapest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific) and dearest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 10% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

10:00 to 13:00 UTC

02:00 to 05:00 Pacific · index 0.913 · typical 25s 67c

Best hours to sell

22:00 to 01:00 UTC

14:00 to 17:00 Pacific · index 1.083 · typical 27s 96c

Spread after the 5% cut

+10%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Silver-thread Bootsby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	27s 56c	27s 33c	18	1.030	3
01:00	17:00	23s 75c	21s	19	1.070	2
02:00	18:00	21s	18s 50c	23	0.972	2
03:00	19:00	17s	15s	27	0.971	1
04:00	20:00	18s 50c	17s	31	0.888	2
05:00	21:00	28s 22c	22s 67c	23	1.064	3
06:00	22:00	30s 25c	29s 50c	17	1.010	2
07:00	23:00	18s	17s	32	0.895	2
08:00	00:00	24s	21s	27	0.965	3
09:00	01:00	24s	22s 50c	22	0.975	2
10:00	02:00	24s	21s 50c	20	0.968	2
11:00	03:00	28s	26s 50c	8	0.818	2
12:00	04:00	25s	24s 50c	21	0.955	2
13:00	05:00	31s	29s	10	0.979	1
14:00	06:00	33s 33c	32s 67c	12	1.117	3
15:00	07:00	19s	19s	23	1.031	1
16:00	08:00	31s	31s	5	1.008	1
17:00	09:00	30s	30s	8	0.990	1
18:00	10:00	24s 50c	24s	19	1.042	2
19:00	11:00	24s 67c	24s	14	1.048	3
20:00	12:00	31s	31s	8	1.119	4
21:00	13:00	21s 67c	21s	15	0.867	3
22:00	14:00	32s 33c	31s 67c	19	1.152	3
23:00	15:00	24s	22s	27	1.066	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/6394 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Silver-thread Boots?: On Normal Horde US, Silver-thread Boots is cheapest from 10:00 to 13:00 UTC (02:00 to 05:00 Pacific) and dearest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 10% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.