How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Glimmering Shield is cheapest from 23:00 to 02:00 UTC (15:00 to 18:00 Pacific) and dearest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 48% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

23:00 to 02:00 UTC

15:00 to 18:00 Pacific · index 0.869 · typical 69s 50c

Best hours to sell

15:00 to 18:00 UTC

07:00 to 10:00 Pacific · index 1.143 · typical 1g 5s 89c

Spread after the 5% cut

+48%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Glimmering Shieldby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	89s	87s 67c	14	0.918	3
01:00	17:00	59s 50c	58s	22	0.855	2
02:00	18:00	59s	58s	19	0.863	2
03:00	19:00	44s	44s	21	0.918	1
04:00	20:00	58s	57s	23	0.884	2
05:00	21:00	87s 67c	86s 67c	16	0.962	3
06:00	22:00	1g 9s 50c	97s	12	0.996	2
07:00	23:00	57s	54s 50c	31	0.927	2
08:00	00:00	82s 67c	78s	21	0.971	3
09:00	01:00	84s	83s	19	0.967	2
10:00	02:00	1g 25s	1g 25s	7	0.990	1
11:00	03:00	1g 25s	1g 25s	7	1.022	1
12:00	04:00	96s 50c	90s	18	1.065	2
13:00	05:00	1g 25s	1g 25s	6	1.078	1
14:00	06:00	1g 13s 33c	1g 9s	10	1.083	3
15:00	07:00	67s 67c	55s	20	1.173	1
16:00	08:00	1g 25s	1g 25s	6	1.118	1
17:00	09:00	1g 25s	1g 12s	6	1.137	1
18:00	10:00	86s 25c	82s 50c	14	1.050	2
19:00	11:00	83s	81s 50c	17	1.052	2
20:00	12:00	1g 4s 67c	1g 1s 67c	9	1.061	3
21:00	13:00	1g 3s 67c	76s 33c	14	1.066	3
22:00	14:00	99s 83c	88s	14	1.010	3
23:00	15:00	60s	58s	19	0.833	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/6400 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.987	1.035	4
01:00	17:00	1.006	1.014	3
02:00	18:00	1.005	1.038	4
03:00	19:00	1.018	1.086	2
04:00	20:00	0.987	1.145	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.210	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.085	3
07:00	23:00	0.973	1.329	3
08:00	00:00	0.972	1.312	3
09:00	01:00	1.218	1.083	3
10:00	02:00	1.033	1.044	1
11:00	03:00	1.047	0.980	3
12:00	04:00	0.985	0.988	3
13:00	05:00	1.024	0.880	2
14:00	06:00	0.986	0.880	4
15:00	07:00	0.949	0.839	2
16:00	08:00	0.985	0.832	1
17:00	09:00	0.973	0.855	1
18:00	10:00	0.946	0.900	3
19:00	11:00	0.979	0.794	4
20:00	12:00	1.001	0.743	4
21:00	13:00	0.984	0.933	3
22:00	14:00	0.984	0.970	3
23:00	15:00	0.980	1.023	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Glimmering Shield?: On Normal Horde US, Glimmering Shield is cheapest from 23:00 to 02:00 UTC (15:00 to 18:00 Pacific) and dearest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 48% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.