How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Alliance US, Nightsky Trousers is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (01:00 to 04:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 47% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

20:00 to 23:00 UTC

12:00 to 15:00 Pacific · index 0.933 · typical 66s 17c

Best hours to sell

09:00 to 12:00 UTC

01:00 to 04:00 Pacific · index 1.050 · typical 99s 11c

Spread after the 5% cut

+47%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Nightsky Trousersby hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	86s 75c	82s	7	0.950	4
01:00	17:00	86s 25c	81s 50c	8	0.980	4
02:00	18:00	86s 75c	82s	8	0.963	4
03:00	19:00	77s	72s 20c	10	0.989	5
04:00	20:00	76s 50c	71s 50c	12	1.009	4
05:00	21:00	74s 63c	71s 50c	13	0.990	4
06:00	22:00	72s 75c	71s 50c	12	1.151	4
07:00	23:00	83s 67c	82s	9	0.992	3
08:00	00:00	51s 50c	41s 50c	13	0.996	2
09:00	01:00	1g 6s 50c	99s	5	1.039	2
10:00	02:00	84s 33c	79s 33c	7	1.041	3
11:00	03:00	1g 6s 50c	99s	4	1.071	2
12:00	04:00	40s	39s	10	1.023	1
13:00	05:00	45s	44s 50c	10	0.926	2
14:00	06:00	83s	82s 75c	5	1.048	4
15:00	07:00	61s	58s	8	0.978	3
16:00	08:00	94s	85s	5	1.042	1
17:00	09:00	70s	67s 50c	9	0.982	2
18:00	10:00	58s	58s	7	0.989	3
19:00	11:00	58s	58s	7	1.015	3
20:00	12:00	54s 67c	54s 33c	6	0.915	3
21:00	13:00	54s 33c	51s	6	0.912	3
22:00	14:00	89s 50c	86s 75c	6	0.970	4
23:00	15:00	90s 33c	88s 67c	7	1.028	3

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.alliance.us/6405 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.001	1.007	4
01:00	17:00	1.008	1.024	5
02:00	18:00	0.977	1.045	5
03:00	19:00	0.987	1.087	5
04:00	20:00	0.984	1.111	5
05:00	21:00	0.991	1.166	5
06:00	22:00	0.990	1.207	6
07:00	23:00	0.980	1.174	4
08:00	00:00	1.004	1.270	2
09:00	01:00	0.994	1.146	2
10:00	02:00	0.993	1.104	4
11:00	03:00	0.988	1.055	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.951	2
13:00	05:00	0.987	0.956	2
14:00	06:00	1.011	0.918	5
15:00	07:00	0.997	0.894	4
16:00	08:00	1.056	0.791	2
17:00	09:00	1.009	0.854	4
18:00	10:00	0.987	0.873	5
19:00	11:00	1.056	0.728	4
20:00	12:00	0.969	0.908	4
21:00	13:00	0.989	0.934	4
22:00	14:00	1.020	0.893	4
23:00	15:00	1.010	0.903	3

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Nightsky Trousers?: On Normal Alliance US, Nightsky Trousers is cheapest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific) and dearest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (01:00 to 04:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 47% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.