How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Forked Tongue is cheapest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific) and dearest from 08:00 to 11:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 29% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

15:00 to 18:00 UTC

07:00 to 10:00 Pacific · index 0.927 · typical 2s 55c

Best hours to sell

08:00 to 11:00 UTC

00:00 to 03:00 Pacific · index 1.179 · typical 3s 39c

Spread after the 5% cut

+29%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Forked Tongueby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	3s 20c	3s 17c	28	1.019	4
01:00	17:00	2s 39c	2s 34c	45	0.979	2
02:00	18:00	2s 61c	2s 56c	24	0.932	3
03:00	19:00	2s 28c	2s 28c	59	0.999	1
04:00	20:00	2s 56c	2s 56c	33	0.913	3
05:00	21:00	2s 89c	2s 53c	46	1.024	3
06:00	22:00	3s 20c	2s 60c	35	1.046	2
07:00	23:00	2s 34c	2s 29c	51	0.978	2
08:00	00:00	2s 89c	2s 45c	44	1.050	3
09:00	01:00	3s 39c	2s 93c	31	1.268	3
10:00	02:00	3s 90c	2s 50c	31	1.219	1
11:00	03:00	3s 50c	2s 84c	18	1.012	2
12:00	04:00	2s 65c	2s 49c	35	0.959	2
13:00	05:00	2s 79c	2s 68c	25	0.929	1
14:00	06:00	3s 3c	2s 99c	22	0.983	3
15:00	07:00	2s 30c	2s 28c	39	0.956	1
16:00	08:00	2s 68c	2s 60c	22	0.908	1
17:00	09:00	2s 68c	2s 60c	23	0.916	1
18:00	10:00	2s 99c	2s 93c	23	0.998	3
19:00	11:00	3s 22c	3s 20c	20	0.997	4
20:00	12:00	3s 23c	3s 20c	18	1.001	4
21:00	13:00	2s 96c	2s 93c	29	0.969	3
22:00	14:00	2s 93c	2s 92c	33	0.976	3
23:00	15:00	2s 39c	2s 34c	45	0.970	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/6444 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.978	1.041	4
01:00	17:00	0.997	1.031	3
02:00	18:00	0.994	1.069	4
03:00	19:00	1.004	1.124	2
04:00	20:00	0.978	1.175	4
05:00	21:00	0.984	1.237	4
06:00	22:00	0.983	1.087	3
07:00	23:00	0.970	1.392	3
08:00	00:00	0.964	1.363	3
09:00	01:00	1.437	0.751	2
10:00	02:00	1.025	1.058	1
11:00	03:00	1.020	0.985	3
12:00	04:00	0.973	0.993	3
13:00	05:00	1.014	0.892	2
14:00	06:00	0.973	0.879	4
15:00	07:00	0.949	0.839	2
16:00	08:00	0.977	0.840	1
17:00	09:00	0.958	0.858	1
18:00	10:00	0.942	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.973	0.797	4
20:00	12:00	0.993	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.971	0.940	3
22:00	14:00	0.976	0.975	3
23:00	15:00	0.967	1.032	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Forked Tongue?: On Normal Horde US, Forked Tongue is cheapest from 15:00 to 18:00 UTC (07:00 to 10:00 Pacific) and dearest from 08:00 to 11:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 29% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.