How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Alliance US, Bard's Buckler is cheapest from 18:00 to 21:00 UTC (10:00 to 13:00 Pacific) and dearest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (01:00 to 04:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 138% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

18:00 to 21:00 UTC

10:00 to 13:00 Pacific · index 0.716 · typical 9s 44c

Best hours to sell

09:00 to 12:00 UTC

01:00 to 04:00 Pacific · index 1.226 · typical 19s 95c

Spread after the 5% cut

+138%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Bard's Bucklerby hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	16s 25c	7s	37	1.401	4
01:00	17:00	15s	6s 67c	32	1.038	3
02:00	18:00	14s 75c	6s 25c	33	1.179	4
03:00	19:00	13s 8c	7s	35	1.066	4
04:00	20:00	8s 67c	7s	39	0.868	3
05:00	21:00	10s 33c	7s	41	0.998	3
06:00	22:00	12s 25c	6s 75c	42	1.061	4
07:00	23:00	11s	7s	40	0.997	2
08:00	00:00	8s	6s	55	0.947	1
09:00	01:00	11s 34c	7s	42	1.052	2
10:00	02:00	24s 17c	9s 67c	31	1.283	3
11:00	03:00	24s 33c	9s 67c	28	1.343	3
12:00	04:00	17s 50c	15s	10	0.683	1
13:00	05:00	7s	6s	35	0.833	1
14:00	06:00	16s 25c	8s 75c	34	0.977	4
15:00	07:00	21s 72c	9s	27	1.249	3
16:00	08:00	25s 65c	9s 50c	20	1.360	2
17:00	09:00	10s 80c	7s 75c	33	0.757	4
18:00	10:00	9s	7s 25c	35	0.681	4
19:00	11:00	9s 33c	8s	30	0.773	3
20:00	12:00	10s	8s 67c	34	0.694	3
21:00	13:00	12s	7s 33c	36	0.818	3
22:00	14:00	11s 50c	7s	35	1.031	4
23:00	15:00	11s	8s	32	0.912	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.alliance.us/6559 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.999	1.031	4
01:00	17:00	0.992	1.055	4
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.119	5
03:00	19:00	0.998	1.158	4
04:00	20:00	0.994	1.182	4
05:00	21:00	1.007	1.211	4
06:00	22:00	1.014	1.255	5
07:00	23:00	0.955	0.998	3
08:00	00:00	0.968	1.133	1
09:00	01:00	0.966	1.140	2
10:00	02:00	0.974	1.077	3
11:00	03:00	0.991	1.040	3
12:00	04:00	1.105	0.795	1
13:00	05:00	0.985	0.943	1
14:00	06:00	1.009	0.896	4
15:00	07:00	1.000	0.848	3
16:00	08:00	1.046	0.809	2
17:00	09:00	0.999	0.833	4
18:00	10:00	0.990	0.847	4
19:00	11:00	1.018	0.869	3
20:00	12:00	0.982	0.936	3
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.947	3
22:00	14:00	1.028	0.908	4
23:00	15:00	0.994	0.970	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Bard's Buckler?: On Normal Alliance US, Bard's Buckler is cheapest from 18:00 to 21:00 UTC (10:00 to 13:00 Pacific) and dearest from 09:00 to 12:00 UTC (01:00 to 04:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 138% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.