How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance EU through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance EU, Defender Shield is cheapest from 14:00 to 17:00 UTC (15:00 to 18:00 CET) and dearest from 23:00 to 02:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 CET). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 172% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance EU. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/eu

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

14:00 to 17:00 UTC

15:00 to 18:00 CET · index 0.762 · typical 29s 67c

Best hours to sell

23:00 to 02:00 UTC

00:00 to 03:00 CET · index 1.304 · typical 80s 89c

Spread after the 5% cut

+172%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Defender Shieldby hour · PvP Alliance EU

Hour (UTC)	CET	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	01:00	1g 20s	99s	5	1.451	1
01:00	02:00	62s 33c	49s	9	1.175	3
02:00	03:00	33s 50c	21s	11	1.049	2
03:00	04:00	33s 50c	20s 50c	11	1.069	2
04:00	05:00	25s	18s	20	0.961	2
05:00	06:00	76s 25c	59s 50c	10	1.244	2
06:00	07:00	52s 50c	38s 50c	10	1.090	4
07:00	08:00	46s 50c	38s 25c	9	1.010	4
08:00	09:00	34s 65c	28s 25c	10	0.891	4
09:00	10:00	39s	25s 75c	12	0.888	4
10:00	11:00	38s 25c	25s 50c	12	0.877	4
11:00	12:00	37s	25s 67c	11	0.787	3
12:00	13:00	18s	17s	13	0.741	1
13:00	14:00	32s 67c	28s 67c	11	0.770	3
14:00	15:00	23s	21s 50c	13	0.808	2
15:00	16:00	38s 58c	36s 67c	9	0.842	3
16:00	17:00	27s 44c	26s 50c	7	0.635	4
17:00	18:00	28s 40c	20s	10	1.051	2
18:00	19:00	36s	20s	11	1.366	2
19:00	20:00	30s 84c	22s 67c	6	1.046	3
20:00	21:00	27s 86c	20s	9	1.068	2
21:00	22:00	23s 80c	20s	8	0.928	1
22:00	23:00	31s 67c	25s	12	0.968	3
23:00	00:00	60s 33c	47s 67c	14	1.285	3

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.eu/6572 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance EU

Hour (UTC)	CET	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	01:00	0.996	1.109	1
01:00	02:00	1.008	1.050	4
02:00	03:00	1.044	1.010	3
03:00	04:00	1.032	0.998	2
04:00	05:00	1.037	1.005	3
05:00	06:00	1.065	0.787	2
06:00	07:00	1.026	0.845	5
07:00	08:00	1.040	0.797	5
08:00	09:00	1.022	0.854	5
09:00	10:00	1.015	0.906	5
10:00	11:00	1.044	0.920	5
11:00	12:00	0.998	0.902	4
12:00	13:00	0.985	0.879	2
13:00	14:00	0.991	1.004	3
14:00	15:00	0.989	1.018	3
15:00	16:00	0.984	1.066	3
16:00	17:00	0.968	1.087	4
17:00	18:00	0.959	1.104	3
18:00	19:00	0.959	1.143	2
19:00	20:00	0.995	1.027	3
20:00	21:00	0.950	1.170	2
21:00	22:00	0.944	1.085	1
22:00	23:00	0.949	1.148	3
23:00	00:00	1.000	1.086	3

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Defender Shield?: On PvP Alliance EU, Defender Shield is cheapest from 14:00 to 17:00 UTC (15:00 to 18:00 CET) and dearest from 23:00 to 02:00 UTC (00:00 to 03:00 CET). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 172% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance EU through the night fills the gaps.