How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On Normal Horde US, Dervish Gloves is cheapest from 14:00 to 17:00 UTC (06:00 to 09:00 Pacific) and dearest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 190% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: Normal Horde US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/normal/horde/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

14:00 to 17:00 UTC

06:00 to 09:00 Pacific · index 0.764 · typical 47s 22c

Best hours to sell

20:00 to 23:00 UTC

12:00 to 15:00 Pacific · index 1.293 · typical 79s 11c

Spread after the 5% cut

+190%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Dervish Glovesby hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	52s	38s	14	0.727	4
01:00	17:00	32s 75c	17s	19	0.680	2
02:00	18:00	50s	17s	19	1.056	2
03:00	19:00	52s 33c	17s	20	1.075	1
04:00	20:00	90s	82s 67c	13	1.246	3
05:00	21:00	53s 78c	21s	16	0.844	3
06:00	22:00	30s	23s	11	0.518	2
07:00	23:00	60s	16s 50c	16	1.329	2
08:00	00:00	42s 83c	21s	15	0.673	3
09:00	01:00	58s 50c	23s	11	0.887	2
10:00	02:00	58s 50c	22s	11	0.932	2
11:00	03:00	72s 50c	36s 50c	6	0.988	2
12:00	04:00	87s 50c	22s 50c	13	1.435	2
13:00	05:00	80s	28s	10	1.290	1
14:00	06:00	55s	30s 67c	8	0.821	3
15:00	07:00	36s 67c	17s	16	0.633	1
16:00	08:00	50s	30s	10	0.838	1
17:00	09:00	50s	30s	8	0.857	1
18:00	10:00	69s 75c	23s 50c	10	1.243	2
19:00	11:00	54s 50c	28s 50c	12	0.953	2
20:00	12:00	95s 33c	40s 67c	6	1.600	3
21:00	13:00	70s	47s 33c	11	1.112	3
22:00	14:00	72s	47s	15	1.168	3
23:00	15:00	55s	18s 50c	22	1.094	2

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.normal.horde.us/6605 on the API.

The whole market by hour · Normal Horde US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	0.991	1.028	4
01:00	17:00	1.004	1.005	3
02:00	18:00	0.999	1.030	4
03:00	19:00	1.006	1.060	2
04:00	20:00	0.986	1.128	4
05:00	21:00	0.988	1.185	4
06:00	22:00	0.989	1.081	3
07:00	23:00	0.981	1.300	3
08:00	00:00	0.974	1.290	3
09:00	01:00	1.212	1.051	3
10:00	02:00	1.002	1.214	2
11:00	03:00	1.044	0.967	3
12:00	04:00	0.989	0.991	3
13:00	05:00	1.026	0.877	2
14:00	06:00	0.983	0.884	4
15:00	07:00	0.957	0.855	2
16:00	08:00	0.992	0.839	1
17:00	09:00	0.978	0.854	1
18:00	10:00	0.953	0.903	3
19:00	11:00	0.983	0.798	4
20:00	12:00	1.004	0.738	4
21:00	13:00	0.987	0.935	3
22:00	14:00	0.988	0.967	3
23:00	15:00	0.982	1.019	2

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Dervish Gloves?: On Normal Horde US, Dervish Gloves is cheapest from 14:00 to 17:00 UTC (06:00 to 09:00 Pacific) and dearest from 20:00 to 23:00 UTC (12:00 to 15:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 190% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning Normal Horde US through the night fills the gaps.