How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Recipe: Smoked Bear Meat is cheapest from 19:00 to 22:00 UTC (11:00 to 14:00 Pacific) and dearest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (18:00 to 21:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 157% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

19:00 to 22:00 UTC

11:00 to 14:00 Pacific · index 0.665 · typical 10s 69c

Best hours to sell

02:00 to 05:00 UTC

18:00 to 21:00 Pacific · index 1.482 · typical 25s 85c

Spread after the 5% cut

+157%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Recipe: Smoked Bear Meatby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	12s	10s 67c	24	0.861	3
01:00	17:00	11s 33c	10s 33c	24	0.785	3
02:00	18:00	35s 50c	12s 50c	39	1.915	2
03:00	19:00	28s	19s 50c	38	1.553	2
04:00	20:00	14s 6c	12s	23	0.977	4
05:00	21:00	13s	11s 20c	26	0.927	5
06:00	22:00	16s 79c	12s 25c	27	1.119	4
07:00	23:00	12s 30c	11s	23	0.929	5
08:00	00:00	16s	13s 67c	28	1.083	3
09:00	01:00	16s	14s 67c	23	1.065	3
10:00	02:00	16s 88c	15s 75c	18	1.132	4
11:00	03:00	15s 87c	15s	21	1.053	3
12:00	04:00	11s	10s	19	1.072	2
13:00	05:00	14s	13s 33c	24	1.013	3
14:00	06:00	14s 25c	13s 75c	22	1.019	4
15:00	07:00	15s	12s 67c	10	1.036	3
16:00	08:00	13s 25c	9s 50c	23	0.973	4
17:00	09:00	11s 84c	10s	31	0.869	4
18:00	10:00	11s 33c	10s 67c	18	0.893	3
19:00	11:00	11s 75c	10s	33	0.804	2
20:00	12:00	9s 33c	8s 67c	40	0.616	3
21:00	13:00	11s	10s	29	0.576	1
22:00	14:00	11s 67c	10s	23	0.882	3
23:00	15:00	11s 33c	9s 75c	37	0.848	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/6892 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Recipe: Smoked Bear Meat?: On PvP Alliance US, Recipe: Smoked Bear Meat is cheapest from 19:00 to 22:00 UTC (11:00 to 14:00 Pacific) and dearest from 02:00 to 05:00 UTC (18:00 to 21:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 157% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.