How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?

Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.

How much history does the pattern need?

Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.

Best hours to buy and sell

Pick a market and an item. Every hour of the day shows its typical price, lowest buyout and listings, and the page names the cheapest hours to buy, the dearest to sell, and what the gap is worth after the 5 percent cut.

On PvP Alliance US, Instant Poison is cheapest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific) and dearest from 14:00 to 17:00 UTC (06:00 to 09:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 1491% after the 5 percent cut.

Current market: PvP Alliance US. This browser opens every tool here until you pick another. Address for this market: ahledger.com/timing?market=forever/pvp/alliance/us

1MarketEach house keeps its own hours.2WindowDays of scans the hours are averaged over.3ItemKept while you switch market or window; type another below.

Item

Best hours to buy

22:00 to 01:00 UTC

14:00 to 17:00 Pacific · index 0.787 · typical 86c

Best hours to sell

14:00 to 17:00 UTC

06:00 to 09:00 Pacific · index 1.576 · typical 14s 23c

Spread after the 5% cut

+1491%

buy at the cheap hours' lowest buyout, sell at the dear hours' typical price

Confidence

Too early

Too early to trust: the thinnest hour has 1 day of scans behind it over the last 28 days. Read the windows as a hint, not a rule.

Instant Poisonby hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Typical	Lowest	Listings	Index	Days
00:00	16:00	78c	76c	16	0.794	3
01:00	17:00	37c	35c	16	1.093	3
02:00	18:00	16c	11c	26	1.083	2
03:00	19:00	15c	13c	21	1.076	2
04:00	20:00	75c	73c	21	0.769	3
05:00	21:00	67c	64c	23	0.853	4
06:00	22:00	49c	48c	20	0.743	4
07:00	23:00	47c	47c	17	0.777	4
08:00	00:00	61c	59c	19	0.851	3
09:00	01:00	61c	58c	22	0.904	3
10:00	02:00	47c	47c	18	0.948	4
11:00	03:00	59c	58c	18	0.935	3
12:00	04:00	1s 30c	1s 30c	13	1.026	1
13:00	05:00	71c	69c	17	0.992	2
14:00	06:00	12s 94c	12s 93c	10	1.528	4
15:00	07:00	16s 82c	16s 81c	9	1.645	3
16:00	08:00	12s 94c	12s 92c	9	1.556	4
17:00	09:00	2s 93c	2s 91c	7	0.949	4
18:00	10:00	3s 87c	3s 70c	5	1.077	3
19:00	11:00	3s 74c	3s 30c	8	1.054	3
20:00	12:00	3s 11c	3s 11c	7	0.885	3
21:00	13:00	4s 63c	1s 12c	9	0.896	2
22:00	14:00	1s 1c	1s 1c	14	0.725	3
23:00	15:00	78c	78c	15	0.843	4

Under 1.000 is a cheap hour to buy; over 1.000 a good hour to sell. Days counts how many days that hour was scanned in the window. The same figures as JSON: /v1/timing/forever.pvp.alliance.us/6947 on the API.

The whole market by hour · PvP Alliance US

Hour (UTC)	Pacific	Price index	Listings index	Days
00:00	16:00	1.025	0.959	4
01:00	17:00	1.082	0.840	3
02:00	18:00	0.993	1.061	3
03:00	19:00	1.011	1.016	3
04:00	20:00	0.995	1.074	4
05:00	21:00	1.000	1.092	5
06:00	22:00	1.020	1.143	4
07:00	23:00	1.001	1.194	5
08:00	00:00	1.011	1.116	4
09:00	01:00	0.987	1.133	4
10:00	02:00	1.014	1.059	5
11:00	03:00	0.999	1.090	3
12:00	04:00	1.014	0.987	2
13:00	05:00	0.990	0.984	3
14:00	06:00	0.995	0.984	4
15:00	07:00	0.973	0.963	3
16:00	08:00	0.972	0.938	4
17:00	09:00	0.974	0.888	4
18:00	10:00	0.977	0.935	3
19:00	11:00	0.993	0.902	3
20:00	12:00	0.984	0.913	3
21:00	13:00	0.992	0.839	2
22:00	14:00	0.998	0.927	3
23:00	15:00	1.003	0.962	4

Each hour is indexed against the 24 hours around it, item by item across the market's largest positions, then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. For the day-of-week pattern, see market structure.

▸How this is worked out

Every hourly price is divided by the same item's average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting over the month does not make one end of the day look dear. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest; the spread buys at the cheap window's lowest buyout and sells at the dear window's typical price less the cut. Forever's history restarts at launch, so a live market's pattern never includes beta scans.

Common questions

What is the best time of day to buy and sell Instant Poison?: On PvP Alliance US, Instant Poison is cheapest from 22:00 to 01:00 UTC (14:00 to 17:00 Pacific) and dearest from 14:00 to 17:00 UTC (06:00 to 09:00 Pacific). Buying in the cheap hours and selling in the dear ones returns about 1491% after the 5 percent cut.
How is the hour-of-day pattern worked out?: Every hourly price is divided by the same item’s average over the 24 hours around it, so a price drifting up or down over the month does not make one end of the day look dear, and the 24 hours are then centred so an average hour reads 1.000. The best buy window is the cheapest run of three hours and the best sell window the dearest. Hours are UTC, with the hour on the wall in the zone most of the market’s players keep beside them.
How much history does the pattern need?: Each hour of the day needs a few days of scans behind it before its figure means anything. The confidence line reads the thinnest hour: settled from ten days of scans, provisional from three, too early under that, and no pattern at all while fewer than half the hours have been scanned. Scanning PvP Alliance US through the night fills the gaps.